quarta-feira, maio 18, 2011

Síndroma da China

A central nuclear de Fukushima está fora de controle.
3000 pessoas evacuadas



2011 preparava-se para ser o ano de partida para uma nova vaga de centrais nucleares, depois de uma batalha vencida pela liberalização deste negócio. Mas a central japonesa que actualmente derrete, explode e contaminará durante séculos (ou milénios) toda uma região cujo perímetro de radioactividade letal se alarga dia a dia, veio alterar radicalmente estas expectativas. O reactor nº 1 da central de Fukushima começou a derreter, sabe-se agora, não por causa do tsunami, mas tão só por causa da violência dos sismos que abalaram a principal ilha japonesa no passado dia 11 de março. Se pensarmos no número de centrais existentes no Japão, na Europa, na Rússia, na Índia, na China e nos Estados Unidos, e nas probabilidades de grandes terramotos causarem tragédias desta magnitude, percebe-se com facilidade que o renascimento do optimismo nuclear acaba de sofrer um duro golpe.

A central nuclear de Fukushima é privada, e também por esta circunstância se porá em causa, por causa desta tragédia que ainda não acabou nem tem fim à vista, o entusiasmo de muitos cientistas, especialistas e especuladores por uma nova geração de centrais nucleares mais produtivas, mas cuja segurança ninguém parece poder garantir.

O Japão já estava à beira do colapso financeiro antes da tragédia sísmica e nuclear, nomeadamente por causa da sua astronómica dívida pública. Agora, o inevitável colapso da sua economia em consequência do desastre nuclear que recomeçou, somado às graves crises financeiras americana e britânica, elevarão a crise sistémica que abala a economia mundial desde 2008 para um patamar potencialmente catastrófico.

Recomendações (sobretudo depois de saber que o BES, o BCP e a Caixa estão de cofres vazios): guarde o ouro e as pratas que tiver em sua casa, e compre mais se puder. Use os cartões de débito, e de preferência de crédito, e guarde liquidez (notas de euro) em casa, para dois meses pelo menos. Se tem quintas ou quintinhas, não se desfaça delas — visite-as e pense no seu potencial alimentar. Não compre mais carros, nem casas! Desfaça-se das acções quanto antes, sobretudo de bancos, empresas de construção, cimentos e telecomunicações. O que aí vem não é bom!

China Syndrome “might just have happened at Fukushima” — Molten fuel may have “melted through everything into the earth”.
May 16th, 2011 at 04:22 PM. TIME.com

Nearly 3,000 evacuees rushed to hospital by ambulance — From shelters in Fukushima, Iwate and Miyagi.
May 17th, 2011 at 03:22 AM. JAPAN TODAY

“There have been nuclear explosions” — “Ongoing nuclear reaction taking place now”.
May 17th, 2011 at 04:53 PM. ENENEWS

... the “nuclear power policy makers”, historical pillars of the development of this energy from the 1950s, just like their fierce rivals the environmentalists who emerged in the 1970s, will quickly see that their monopoly of the debate on this subject is coming to end. Fukushima, the Internet and the crisis are in the course of shattering the nuclear debate’s traditional expertise, limited to mode "pro" or "anti". The implications of such an upheaval for the various industry players and policy makers faced with choices for national energy are on an unprecedented scale since they involve a whole segment of global energy production. — Confidential letter - GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin Nr 55 - May 16, 2011.

Tokyo Electric Power Company shares dropped over 9 percent on the Tokyo Stock Exchange on Tuesday after its credit rating was cut by US rating firm Moody's.
May 17, 2011 17:29 +0900 (JST). ENENEWS.

TEPCO shares ended the day at 380 yen, or about 4.7 dollars, falling below 400 yen at closing for the first time in 40 days. Stock prices for other utilities also plunged.

Moody's Investors Service said it downgraded TEPCO's rating by 2 notches because it's unclear how the Japanese government will help the utility pay huge amounts of compensation to people affected by the Fukushima nuclear plant accident.

Market sources say a growing number of investors are concerned about the future of Japan's nuclear power industry.

Tepco Misleading Public Over Nuclear Crisis. By Tsuyoshi Inajima and Yuji Okada - May 18, 2011 6:41 AM GMT+0100 (Bloomberg)

Interview with Akira Tokuhiro, Nuclear Engineer: Fukushima and the Mass Media
Posted: 05/17/11 05:28 PM ET. The Huffington Post.

The most terrifying fact is that the Japanese power plants are using ‘dirty’ fuel, which most countries have rejected and banned. Needless to say that the Americans built them. Since the Earth is moving Counterclockwise most of the fall-out will drop on U.S., unless very strong winds take it somewhere else. [...]

Virtually any nuclear engineer connected with the industry he or she supports cannot be fully trusted right now to give us the full truth about Fukushima because the truth is simply too damaging to the nuclear industry and they know it. The attitude the industry has as well as the ugly reality that this same energy is tied to the economy which supports full on capitalism must be scaled back Tokuhiro advised. He tells me it is difficult to speak of this in the U.S., but adds that we need to go back to a time when shops were closed on Sundays and we spent time with our families, not using up more energy but actually staying home. I added that we still do this on Sunday and it is often very difficult to find shops open here in France on Sunday except for the local outdoor markets.

Última actualização: 19 maio 2011 00:15

10 comentários:

Anónimo disse...

Peço desculpa, mas este post está cheio de disparates de natureza técnica e factual. Toda a informação referente ao acidente de Fukushima está no site http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/tsunamiupdate01.html.
Quanto aos efeitos da radiação sobre a saúde publica estão no site:
http://www.who.int/ionizing_radiation/chernobyl/en/
O acidente sério de Fukushima, resultado de um sismo de enorme magnitude e de um tsunami que se lhe seguiu (os maiores já agora registados nos Japão e o quinto maior sismo registado desde sempre no Mundo), afectou os 4 reactores mais antigos da zona mais duramente afectada de 15, que nada sofreram, e vai terminar sem qualquer vítima mortal em resultado da radiação, ao contrário dos quase 30 000 mortos resultantes dessa catástrofe.
Fukushima, e as lições que deste acidente se podem desde já extrair, representará na história da energia, a prova maior da extrema segurança desta forma de energia, em comparação com qualquer outra termoeléctrica convencional.
Espero tambem que o autor deste blog permita a publicação deste comentário para elucidação de quem o lê.
Pedro Sampaio Nunes

O ANTONIO MARIA disse...

1) Peço desculpa, mas o sítio a que se refere não é actualizado desde o dia 13 de maio, e as notícias citadas no meu post são de 16 e 17 deste mês;

2) O seu segundo comentário não é verificável, em parte por causa das manobras evasivas no plano jurídico sobre as causas de morte induzidas pela libertação de materiais nucleares radioactivos;

3) O seu terceiro comentário, perante as evidências, é mais do que um disparate, é uma afirmação irresponsável;

4) Todos os comentários, salvo se forem sexistas, racistas ou fascistas, são religiosamente publicados.

5) Finalmente, actualizei o post com informação da repercussão dos últimos acontecimentos nas bolsas japonesa e nova-iorquina: as acções da TEPCO já caíram mais de 9%.

Sérgio disse...

Quando um técnico do comité europeu declara que a situação está fora de controlo, que é um problema global, e que ninguém sabe o que fazer, está tudo dito. A última ideia sobre a qual li em que os técnicos japonese estão a trabalhar é numa tenda (tipo circo) para evitar a saída de radioactividade, mais uma vez mostra o desespero da situação.
Sendo a radiação um assassino invisível é sempre possível dizer que não matou ninguém, claro que acredita que quer.
Penso que as tradicionais termoeléctricas (carvão, gás, etc.) tão desprezadas até agora, continuarão a ter um papel fundamental na produção eléctrica.
Quanto ao restante do artigo, apenas discordo de um aspecto, o incentivo ao uso do cartão de crédito, penso que a ideia será de que os bancos estão em eminente colapso e não sobreviverão o suficiente para cobrar a dívida e os juros exorbitantes deste tipo de cartão. Mas acho que isso pode ser uma armadilha, pois mesmo de cofres vazios acredito que conseguirão fingir que está tudo bem durante muito tempo. Quanto às outras recomendações, concordo a 200%.
Cumprimentos e parabéns pelo artigo.

O ANTONIO MARIA disse...

Caro Sérgio,

A recomendação sobre o uso do cartão de crédito, em vez das notas de euro, é para tomar com moderação ;) E deve ser acompanhada com uma dieta rigorosa de gastos. Ou seja, trata-se de manter a despensa e a algibeira com recursos sólidos para o que der e vier. E a recomendação que faço é válida até ao fim do Verão, período que se afigura de enorme incerteza financeira mundial. Já depois de publicado o post saiu esta notícia sobre as imparidades da Vodafone Portugal. As pessoas vão começar a cortar nos exorbitantes custos das telecomunicações, e reduzir as deslocações onerosas. Estagnação+inflação=stagflação!

Karocha disse...

Caro António Maria

E se soubessem, quanto vem do FMI até ao fim deste mês,era o pânico absoluto!

Anónimo disse...

Caro António Maria,

O que diz no seu post e as notícias que transmite não têm a mínima base científica ou técnica. A esse propósito cito-lhe aqui uma posição notável de um físico conhecido:
A plea for a return to science on the nuclear power issue
German physicist Peter Heller makes a passionate plea for a return to science on the nuclear energy issue. He wonders if ignorance and fear will cause us to abandon the legacies of Einstein, Heisenberg and others.
Fukushima
By Dr Peter Heller, http://www.science-skeptical.de
Astronomer, Physicist
There’s no place on earth I would rather be right now than at Fukushima – right in the atomic power plant, at the centre of the event. I say this because I am a physicist and there is no other place that could be more exciting and interesting for a physicist. The same goes for many, if not most physicists and engineers, on the planet.
Already at a young age I knew one day I would study physics. As a boy, I received a telescope for Christmas, and from that point on my view was fixed on the night sky; gazing at star clusters, nebula and galaxies was my favourite preoccupation. It was only later that I learned that these lights and the twinkling in eyepiece were actually the expressions of a chaotic and violent force of nature – the direct conversion of matter into energy during the fusion of an atomic nucleus.
My curiosity carried me, as if on a high, through 10 semesters of study and subsequent graduation. It was a time of discovery that involved the tedious task of understanding. At times I felt exasperation and self doubt with respect to the sheer complexity and breadth of what there was to learn. Yet, there were times of joy whenever the fog lifted and the clarity and beauty of physical descriptions of natural phenomena moved in its place. It was a time that, unfortunately, passed all too quickly and is now some years in the past.
The great minds that accompanied me through my studies were Planck, Sommerfeld, Bohr, Einstein, Heisenberg, and a host of others who, for us physicists, are still very much alive today. They are great thinkers who contributed to unravelling the puzzles of nature and the forces which keep the world together through the most minute structures. I devoured the stories of Otto Hahn and Lise Meitner, of Enrico Fermi and Edward Teller – to name a few – and on how they created completely new technologies from theoretical concepts, how the energy stored in the nucleus of an atom could be used for the good of man and how it became possible in a single process to tap into this source of affordable, clean and plentiful energy on a large scale as never seen by man. Electricity illuminates our world, drives our machines, allow us to communicate over great distances, thus making our lives easier and more comfortable. It is a source of energy that staves off poverty and enables prosperity.
(Continua)

Anónimo disse...

(Continuação)
Hysterical and sensationalist media reporting, paired with a remarkably stark display of ignorance of technical and scientific interrelations, and the attempt by a vast majority of journalists to fan the public’s angst and opposition to nuclear energy – pure witch-burning disguised as modernity.
Freedom of research
So it fills me with sadness and anger on how the work of the above mentioned giants of physics is now being dragged through the mud, how the greatest scientific discoveries of the 20th century are being redefined and criminalized. The current debate in Germany is also a debate on freedom of research. The stigmatization and ostracism of nuclear energy, the demand for an immediate stop of its use, is also the demand for the end of its research and development. No job possibilities also means no students, which means no faculty, which then means the end of the growth of our knowledge. Stopping nuclear energy is nothing less than rejecting the legacy of Einstein, Heisenberg, Bohr and all others. It is tantamount to scrapping it, labelling it as dangerous – all in a fit of ignorance. And just as creationists attempt to ban the theory of evolution from the school books, it almost seems as if every factual and neutral explanation in Germany is now in the process of being deleted.
The media suggests a nuclear catastrophe, a mega-meltdown, and that the apocalypse has already begun. It is almost as if the 10,000 deaths in Japan were actually victims of nuclear energy, and not the earthquake or the tsunami. Here again one has to remind us that Fukushima was first hit by an unimaginable 9.0 earthquake and then by a massive 10-meter wave of water just an hour later.
(continua)

Anónimo disse...

(continuação)
As a result, the facility no longer found itself in a highly technological area, but surrounded by a desert of rubble. All around the power plant the infrastructure, residential areas, traffic routes, energy and communication networks are simply no longer there. They were wiped out. Yet, after an entire week, the apocalypse still has not come to pass. Only relatively small amounts of radioactive materials have leaked out and have had only a local impact. If one considers the pure facts exclusively, i.e. only the things we really know, then it exposes the unfounded interpretations of scientific illiterates in the media. One can only arrive to one conclusion: This sorrowful state will remain so.
In truth, this does not show that the ideologically motivated, fear-laden admonitions and warnings were correct. Fukushima illustrates that we are indeed able to control atomic energy. Fukushima shows that we can master it even when natural disasters beyond planning befall us. Still, at Fukushima the conflict between human creativity/competence continues to clamour against the bond energy in atomic nuclei. It’s a struggle that that shows what human intelligence, knowledge gained, passion, boldness, respect, and capability to learn allow us to do. Personally this does not fill me with apprehension, but with hope. Man can meet this challenge not only because he has to, but most of all because he wants to.
Even though I have not practiced physics for some time now, I will never be anything other than a scientist and researcher, and there would be no other place I would rather be than on site at Fukushima. There is no other place at the moment where so much can be learned about atomic energy, which keeps our world together deep inside, and the technical possibilities to benefit from it. Do we have the courage to learn? Do we accept – with respect and confidence – the opportunities we are confronted with? Fukushima will show us possibilities on how to use the direct conversion of matter into energy in a better and safer way, something that Einstein and others could have only dreamed of.
I am a physicist. My wish is to live in a world that is willing to learn and to improve whatever is good. I would only like to live in a world where great strides in physics are viewed with fascination, pride, and hope because they show us the way to a better future. I would only like to live in a world that has the courage for a better world. Any other world for me is unacceptable. Never. That’s why I am going to fight for this world, without ever relenting."

Pedro Sampaio Nunes

Anónimo disse...

Constatei que o site da AIEA tem o ultimo briefing sobre Fukushima de 13 de Maio, por não ter havido mais nenhuma novidade significativa. No entanto cito-lhe outros sites com informação fidedigna e o ponto mais actual do Governo do Japão:
For your reference, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan (METI) is providing latest information on the seismic and tsunami damages to the nuclear power stations (NPSs) in Japan, including those caused to Fukushima Dai-ichi NPS.
Last weekend to this Tuesday, the following information has been updated.
---- Updates ----
1. May 15_TEPCO announced that the result of the provisional analysis show that the fuel pellets of Unit 1 were melted and fell down to the bottom of the reactor pressure vessel at a relatively early stage after the tsunami reached the plant. TEPCO also announced that the surface of the reactor remains between 100 degrees to 120 degrees in celsius and the most part of the fuels are considered to be submerged in the bottom of the reactor pressure vessel, stable cooling is being achieved.
NISA corresponded that the provisional data is not enough to assert that the fuel has been melted and fallen to the bottom of the vessel and TEPCO needs to continue the verification of the data collected.
http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/press/corp-com/release/11051509-e.html
2. May 17_Japanese Government issued "Roadmap for Immediate Actions for the Verification of and Restoration from the Accident at Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station" and " Roadmap for Immediate Actions for the Assistance of Nuclear Sufferers".
The both roadmaps envision two measure steps to be taken over a period of five to eight months.
http://www.meti.go.jp/english/earthquake/nuclear/roadmap/index.html
3. May 17_TEPCO issued progress status of the "Roadmap towards Restoration
from the Accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station"which was
issued on April 17th. Reflecting the progress made in the last 2 months, 2
areas and 3 issues were newly added. The number of countermeasures against
issues increased to 76 from 63 accordingly.
http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/press/corp-com/release/betu11_e/images/110517e2.pdf
---- Updates from NISA ----
4. Seismic Damage Information (the 140th Release)(As of 12:00 May 16, 2011)
http://www.nisa.meti.go.jp/english/files/en20110517-1-1.pdf
---- Major Updates from other agencies of Japanese Government ---
5. [MLIT] May 17 PM_Measurement of Radiation Doses in the Ports around Tokyo Bay
http://www.mlit.go.jp/common/000144650.pdf
Currently, the level of radiation in Tokyo City, Yokohama City, Kawaski City and Ichikawa City (Chiba) were as shown in the attachment at very safe level to health.
6. [MLIT] May 17 PM_Measurement of radiation doses around the Metropolitan Airports
http://www.mlit.go.jp/common/000144653.pdf
The current level of radiation does not have any effects on human health.
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Espero que lhe seja útil a si e aos seus leitores.

Pedro Sampaio Nunes

O ANTONIO MARIA disse...

A fim de facilitar a leitura da litania pró-nuclear, nada convincente, de Peter Heller, a propósito de Fukushima, que me foi enviada por um dos apóstolos da introdução de centrais nucleares em Portugal, Pedro Sampaio Nunes, recomendo a leitura da tradução inglesa do original alemão AQUI.

Não tenho nenhum preconceito contra a energia nuclear. No entanto, enquanto não me souberem explicar como encerrar as centrais nucleares desactivadas, neutralizar o lixo nuclear, e controlar uma fuga grave de radiação, manterei as minhas reservas sobre esta forma de produção de energia.