sábado, março 07, 2015

BCE: expansão quantitativa para quem?

«My unconventional argument is that the Fed is much more concerned about financial stability than they let on», says James Bianco.

Dia 9 de março as bolsas vão disparar na Europa. E na economia real?


The ECB and national central banks of the Eurosystem will start buying bonds on Monday, March 9 as part of the public sector purchase programme (PSPP). ECB
Se o que Mario Draghi anunciou no dia 5 de março servir apenas para ensopar dívidas soberanas, estimular a especulação bolsista e enriquecer os já muito ricos, espera-o provavelmente, a ele, mas também à eurocracia no seu conjunto, e aos governos nacionais, uma surpresa, isto é, o início de um processo de sincronização das lutas sociais, culturais e políticas contra a destruição da classe média.

Ou seja, se a expansão quantitativa do BCE tiver os mesmos efeitos que teve nos EUA, e no Japão, os 99% que se vão sentir roubados já têm representação política... nos novos extremos da ação partidária...

«Draghi is going to make the same mistake as the Fed»
Finanz und Wirtschaft, 10:17 - März 6th 2015

James Bianco, President of Bianco Research, cautions about the unintended consequences of the new European stimulus program and doesn’t think that the Federal Reserve is going to raise interest rates this year.
[...]

Christoph Gisiger, Chicago —  You have been one of the first in the investment community to correctly predict that QE2 is going to heat up the stock market. Is this also true for the European QE-program which is starting this month?

Sure, just look at the German Dax. It’s up 17% this year whereas the S&P 500 is up 2%. A lot of European stocks have really taken off in the wake of the European QE. It’s going to do the same thing that it did in the US: It’s going to drive asset prices higher. Except now, they are driving yields to negative. They are driving them below zero to get people to go out in the risk curve. So by pushing up asset prices ECB president Draghi is going to make the same mistake as the Fed.

How come?

The program will push up asset prices but it won’t necessarily create jobs and GDP growth. And to that end it will create more strife within the central bank. In the US as an outgrowth of that, culturally we had the Occupy Wall Street movement and we created the phrase «the one percent». So the wealthy own equities and assets and they are benefiting from QE. And that is going to create a lot of unhappiness because if you are not in the one percent you do not own a lot of assets. You are relying on a middle class job and you really are suffering.

Here is my new favorite example: The website TrueCar pointed out that average cars that cost 33’000 $ or less last year in total number of unit sales went up 4%. Cars that cost 50’000 $ were up 30% and cars that cost 70’000 $ or more were up 50% in sales. So if your business is selling 120’000 $ electric cars like Tesla you had a fantastic year. But if your business is selling 22’000 $ Toyota Corollas it was a very, very difficult year for you.

What are the consequences of that?

If Europe is not careful they are going to wind up with the same problem. This program does very, very well for the wealthy in the rich sections of Rome or Madrid.  But in the suburbs where the poor live it is going to create a lot of tension.


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