Lamento desiludi-los, mas só há uma alternativa: austeridade
Numa espécie que atingiu os limites do crescimento, e onde as suas criaturas causaram tantos e tão catastróficos danos à maioria dos ecossistemas de Gaia, o grande endividamento, privado e público, criado para esconder os problemas e adiar a realidade, não pode ser revertido pela via das exportações —pois todos querem, agora mais do que nunca, exportar—, nem pela via do crescimento —que caminha rapidamente para uma estagnação à escala global.
Os limites do crescimento não só foram bem previstos em 1972, como acabam de chegar (2005-2006) e são em grande medida responsáveis pela tempestade perfeita das finanças públicas e privadas à escala planetária.
O PS quer trocar austeridade por crescimento. Mas é impossível. Logo, votar nas alminhas da esquerda desmiolada é como jogar à roleta russa.
Tempo de abrir os olhos e de lançar planos de contingência!
It seems to me that the lower commodity prices we have been seeing over the past four years (with a recent sharper drop for oil), likely reflect an affordability problem. This affordability problem arises because for most people, wages did not rise when energy prices rose, and the prices of commodities in general rose in the early 2000s.
For a while, the lack of affordability could be masked with a variety of programs: economic stimulus, increasing debt and Quantitative Easing. Eventually these programs reach their limits, and prices begin falling in inflation-adjusted terms. Now we are at a point where prices of oil, coal, natural gas, and uranium are all low in inflation-adjusted terms, discouraging further investment.
It seems to me that we are reaching the limits of globalization now. This is why prices of commodities have fallen. With falling prices comes lower total consumption. Many economies are gradually moving into recession–this is what the low prices and falling rates of energy growth really mean.
It is quite possible that at some point in the not too distant future, demand (and prices) will fall further. We then will be dealing with severe worldwide recession.
In my view, low prices and low demand for commodities are what we should expect, as we reach limits of a finite world. There is widespread belief that as we reach limits, prices will rise, and energy products will become scarce. I don’t think that this combination can happen for very long in a networked economy. High energy prices tend to lead to recession, bringing down prices. Low wages and slow growth in debt also tend to bring down prices. A networked economy can work in ways that does not match our intuition; this is why many researchers fail to see understand the nature of the problem we are facing.
—in BP Data Suggests We Are Reaching Peak Energy DemandPosted on June 23, 2015 by Gail Tverberg | Our Finite World