Milagre português até 2027...

O Paul Krugman chamou-lhe o 'milagre português'. Mas ninguém na terrinha lhe ligou peva, entretidos que andam sempre e invariavelmente os indígenas a comprar votos com torradeiras. Na energia e na água estamos bem, salvo no peso excessivo dos chineses nas empresas que exploram os recursos endógenos. No turismo progredimos de modo exponencial, já ultrapassámos a pegada turística 'per capita' dos espanhóis e, portanto, é o momento certo para parar o crescimento bruto das entradas e aumentar a duração das estadias e as receitas por entrada prestando melhores serviços. Na questão urgente do envelhecimento demográfico, fizemos bem (foi António Costa, reconheça-se) em atrair a imigração, mas é preciso uma gestão de proximidade mais fina desta alteração na geografia humana do país . No setor público, precisamos de melhorar a gestão (de aplicar melhor o dinheiro disponível) e a avaliação permanente de resultados nos sub-setores da segurança social, saúde, educação, cultura, ciência, investigação tecnológica e desenvolvimento. Cuidado com as crítica irrefletidas aos americanos! 

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OECD Economic Surveys: Portugal 2026 . 6 January 2026

Portugal’s economy has been outpacing the euro area average since 2022. The unemployment rate has declined, while public debt relative to GDP fell significantly. Rising disbursements of the Recovery and Resilience Funds in 2026, continuous employment gains, and recent structural reforms are all expected to support growth. However, significant challenges lie ahead. Sustaining primary surpluses and preserving public investment are essential to maintain the debt-to-GDP ratio on a firmly declining path. This requires shifting the structure of public spending towards investment, reducing spending pressures from population ageing, and reducing inefficient tax expenditures. Strengthened vocational education and training, as well as better training support for older workers, are needed to fully mobilise the working-age population, ease labour shortages and strengthen skills. Boosting competition in services sectors and maintaining investment would raise labour productivity and support sustainable gains in living standards. More consistent pricing of carbon across the economy and broader insurance coverage for natural risks would make growth more sustainable and support adaptation to a warming climate. Improving housing affordability requires structural reforms to streamline permitting procedures and spatial planning, improve efficiency and equity of property taxes, and strengthen targeted housing support for vulnerable households.

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OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2025 Issue 2 . 2 December 2025 — Portugal

Real GDP growth is projected to reach 1.9% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026, before easing to 1.8% in 2027. A tight labour market, increases in the minimum wage and a personal income tax cut are expected to support private consumption. Increasing disbursements of Recovery and Resilience Funds will contribute to higher public investment in 2026. Export growth will remain subdued reflecting weak external demand amidst higher US tariffs and high uncertainty. As labour demand remains strong, inflation will moderate only slowly to 2.0% in 2027.

Fiscal policy will remain expansionary in 2026 and turn contractionary in 2027, mainly reflecting the end of the implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP) in 2026. Fiscal prudence and structural reforms are key to sustain growth and maintain public debt on a firmly declining path. Over the medium term, containing ageing‑related spending pressures and reducing inefficient tax expenditures would make room for needed productivity-enhancing public investments. Continuing to lower entry barriers and streamline regulations in the retail sector and professional services would also support growth and productivity.

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