quarta-feira, fevereiro 24, 2010

Dívida Pública

Depois do Subprime, vem aí o estouro das Dívidas Públicas!
Casos críticos: EUA, Reino Unido, Japão, e... Eurolândia

"New York - Nightmare In The City that Never Sleeps", 2008 (7 parts)

A dívida dos EUA chegará no fim de 2010 aos "$14,3 trillion" (14,3x10^12 USD), ou seja, mais de 32 vezes as dívidas somadas da Grécia, Irlanda, Espanha e Portugal. Há, por conseguinte, um problema muito gordo no Ocidente. Sobretudo se tivermos em conta que os chineses deixaram praticamente de comprar títulos de dívida soberana a países virtualmente falidos, começando obviamente pelos EUA.

Trade And Government Deficits Always Matter
By Elaine Meinel Supkis

(February 23, 2010)  Spanish default will trouble everyone a great deal.  But conversely, a US default, even though it is a smaller GDP ratio than Spain, would devastate, nay, annihilate all banking.  On the other hand, the countries with a strong industrial base will spring back totally powerful while the US will collapse and not rise again for another 100 years. This is something the Chinese are betting on in the future.  (Link)

‘Size Matters’ as EU Weighs Up Greek Rescue Bill: Chart of Day
By Frances Robinson

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Europe may need to stump up as much as 320 billion euros ($441 billion) if it decides to bail out Greece because it would open the door to rescuing other countries in financial distress, according to BNP Paribas.

“To come up with a bailout plan that would be reasonably certain of success, it would have to cover all the most likely candidates, and it would have to be big,” said Paul Mortimer- Lee, global head of market economics at BNP in London. “Size matters when you are trying to scare off speculators and to comfort nervy bondholders.”  (Link)

Second half of 2010: Sudden intensification of the global systemic crisis – Strengthening of five fundamental negative trends
in GEAB #42

LEAP/E2020 is of the view that the effect of States’ spending trillions to « counteract the crisis » will have fizzled out. These vast sums had the effect of slowing down the development of the systemic global crisis for several months but, as anticipated in previous GEAB reports, this strategy will only have ultimately served to clearly drag States into the crisis caused by the financial institutions. Therefore our team anticipates, in this 42nd issue of the GEAB, a sudden intensification of the crisis in the second half of 2010, caused by a double effect of a catching up of events which were temporarily « frozen » in the second half of 2009 and the impossibility of maintaining the palliative remedies of past years.

... The sudden intensification of the global systemic crisis will be characterised by the acceleration and/or strengthening of five fundamental negative trends:
  • the explosion of the bubble in public deficits and a corresponding increase in state defaults
  • the fatal impact of the Western banking system with mounting debt defaults and the wall of debt coming to maturity 
  • the inescapable rise in interest rates
  • the increase in issues causing international tension
  • a growing social insecurity.

... 2010 will produce a surprising case of the increase in strength of the concept of sovereign debt at risk: it started with Iceland in 2008, then moved to Latvia, Ireland, California and Dubai in 2009, and now Greece. Portugal and Spain will easily get out of it because the Eurozone is currently testing its discovery of the method of supporting countries with credit difficulties with Greece’s case and because these two countries consist of foreseen and manageable risks by Euroland. Then, this wave will go to Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States: the three risks which the system in charge refuses to recognise and for which there is really no possible solution because it concerns the prop of the system and its two supports.

OAM 690 — 24 Fev 2010 12:53 (última actualização: 28 Fev 2010 02:07)

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