A minha previsão
O novo Tratado de Tordesilhas (2.0) será desenhado à custa de guerras vicariantes (proxy wars) entre os Estados Unidos e o Japão, de um lado, e a China e a Rússia, do outro. A Europa, se a União Europeia não sair da letargia estratégica em que se encontra, poderá ver ressurgir profundas divisões entre os seus países. No entanto, se Merkel, Hollande e Juncker conseguirem atrair Cameron para um plano de reforço estratégico da Europa (uma ideia avançada pelo GEAB deste mês), as coisas poderão evoluir doutra maneira, possibilitando um declínio lento, mas pacífico, da hegemonia americana, e a emergência de um status quo equilibrado e duradouro entre o Ocidente e o Oriente.
União Europeia / Reino Unido / Estados Unidos – União, desintegração, reinvenção: A grande transformação sistémica do Ocidente — GEAB, Junho 2015.
Nesta edição do GEAB a nossa equipa decidiu concentrar-se sobre as características [da] reorganização em curso em três actores do mundo Ocidental : a União Europeia, o Reino Unido e os Estados Unidos, três «uniões» políticas que terão impreterivelmente de se reinventar para se tornarem compatíveis com a ordem multipolar. Estimamos que esse processo de reinvenção está já em curso, colocando finalmente o Ocidente sobre a via da sua indispensável transformação sistémica.
Russia will take part in multinational navy drills in disputed South China Sea
Published time: May 30, 2015 20:27, Edited time: June 01, 2015 08:58/ RT
Speaking on Saturday in Singapore, Antonov announced Russia's planned participation in the May 2016 drills which have a focus on counter-terrorism and naval security.
Antonov also said he was concerned about stability in the region, naming the US as the main destabilizing factor. He said that Washington's policies have been aimed against Russia and China: "We are concerned by US policies in the region, especially since every day it becomes increasingly focused on a systemic containment of Russia and China."
Russia and Turkey agree on Turkish Stream onshore route
Published time: February 09, 2015 09:59/ Edited time: February 10, 2015 08:47, RT.
Gazprom and Turkey have agreed the general route for the onshore section of the Turkish Stream pipeline. The first line of the 180 kilometer pipeline is expected to be completed by December 2016, according to company CEO Aleksey Miller.
Putin: Russia to boost nuclear arsenal with 40 missiles
BBC, 16/6/2015
It is part of a wide-reaching programme to modernise the country's military.
The move comes after the US proposed increasing its military presence in Nato states in Eastern Europe.
Nato has condemned the Russian announcement, saying the move amounted to "nuclear sabre-rattling" and was "unjustified" and "dangerous".
Tensions are high over Russia's role in the conflict in eastern Ukraine.
Um novo excecionalismo... chinês
China Completes Island Construction, Will Now Build Military Facilities
Zero Hedge, Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/16/2015 18:10 -0400.
China said it is shifting work on disputed South China Sea islets from the dredging of land to the construction of military and other facilities as it pushes forward with a program that has aggravated tensions with the U.S. and neighbors.
Analysts say the imminent end to China’s island-building work could signal a willingness to seek compromise with Washington and rival claimants in the South China Sea, even as it demonstrates Beijing’s ability to unilaterally dictate terms in the long-standing dispute.
“This is a step toward halting land reclamation, which the U.S. has demanded, and at the same time, China can tell its people that it has accomplished what it wanted to do,” said Huang Jing, an expert on Chinese foreign policy at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore.
“China unilaterally started the land reclamation and now China is unilaterally stopping it,” Mr. Huang said. “China is showing that—as a major power—it can control escalation, that it has the initiative, and that it can do what it sees fit for its interests.”
Última atualização: 17/6/2015, 01:22 WET
