2006 crise mundial 1

Maomé e a próxima guerra nuclear

A monetary, financial and economic tsunami will break on the planet at the end of this month. — GEAB n.2

In the past 5 years the dollar has been devalued in terms of gold by more than 50%. — Ron Paul (congressista republicano dos EUA pelo Estado do Texas).

Over the past five years, the US borrowed more money from the rest of the world than it did in its entire history from 1776 to 2000. — GEAB n.3/SFGate — San Francisco Chronicle — 27/11/2005

O Laboratório Europeu de Antecipação Política Europa 2020 (LEAP/E2020) acaba de divulgar partes de um relatório explosivo sobre a situação mundial, no âmbito do qual poderemos encontrar uma explicação menos óbvia para a recente crise das caricaturas de Maomé. Se estas análises se revelarem correctas, seremos levados a rever boa parte das suposições sobre a origem da recente agitação muçulmana contra uns pobres caricaturistas dinamarqueses. Em vez de uma inexplicável e desproporcionada reacção popular contra os inofensivos desenhos publicados meses antes da reacção em cadeia ateada pelos fundamentalistas islâmicos, teremos que colocar a hipótese de tudo não ter passado de uma complexa manobra de provocação, à semelhança do ataque às Twin Towers, destinada a preparar a opinião pública europeia e ocidental para um ataque nuclear preventivo contra o Irão (a desencadear eventualmente por Israel e pela Turquia, sob a direcção camuflada dos Estados Unidos e com a anuência da França e de vários outros países europeus.) Esta hipótese tremendamente paranóica (ou realista...) tornaria Bin Laden, não no grande herói da Jihad islâmica, mas no grande provocador do Ocidente, cujo fim imediato é garantir a qualquer preço o acesso ilimitado ao que resta das reservas petrolíferas do Médio Oriente.

Alguns extractos do artigo:

“20 a 26 de Março, 2006: Irão-EUA, início de uma crise mundial de grandes proporções, ou o Fim do Mundo Ocidental tal como o conhecemos desde 1945

O Laboratório europeu de Anticipação Política Europa 2020, LEAP/E2020 estima haver 80% de probabilidades de na semana de 20 a 26 de Março se iniciar a mais importante crise política mundial desde a queda da Cortina de Ferro em 1989, associada a uma crise económica e financeira com um alcance comparável à crise de 1929. Esta última semana de Março de 2006 será assim o ponto de viragem numa série de desenvolvimentos críticos, de que resultará a aceleração de todos os factores conducentes a uma grande crise, independentemente de qualquer intervenção militar, americana ou israelita, contra o Irão. Se esta intervenção militar vier a ocorrer, a probabilidade de assistirmos a uma crise de grandes proporções seria então de 100%, de acordo com o LEAP/E2020.

O anúncio desta grande crise resulta da análise de decisões tomadas por dois actores cruciais da presente tensão internacional: i.e. os Estados Unidos e o Irão;

- por um lado temos, para 20 de Março de 2006, a decisão iraniana de abrir em Teerão a primeira bolsa de petróleo afixada em Euros, acessível a todos os produtores da região;

- e por outro lado, a decisão da Reserva Federal Americana de interromper a publicação, a partir de 23 de Março de 2006, dos chamados M3 (o mais fiável indicador do número de dólares em circulação no mundo).

Estas duas decisões combinadas constituem os indicadores, as causas e as consequências de uma transição histórica em curso entre a ordem criada depois da Segunda Guerra Mundial e o novo equilíbrio em gestação desde o colapso da URSS. A sua magnitude, assim como a respectiva simultaneidade, catalizarão todas as tensões, fraquezas e desiquilíbrios acumulados em mais de uma década por todo o sistema internacional.

Os investigadores e analistas do LEAP/E2020 identificaram 7 crises convergentes que as decisões da última semana de Março de 2006 catalizarão e transformarão numa crise geral, afectando todo o planeta nos campos político, económico e financeiro, bem como, muito provavelmente, no campo militar:

1. Crise de confiança no dólar
2. Crise dos desiquilíbrios orçamentais norte-americanos
3. Crise petrolífera
4. Crise da liderança norte-americana
5. Crise do mundo Árabe-Muçulmano
6. Crise de governabilidade mundial
7. Crise de governabilidade europeia

O processo completo de antecipação desta crise vem descrita pormenorizadamente nos próximos números da edição confidencial do LEAP/E2020 - the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin, e em particular no número de 16 de Fevereiro de 2006. Estas edições analisarão detalhadamente cada uma destas 7 crises, e proporão um conjunto de recomendações destinadas às várias categorias de actores envolvidas (nomeadamente governos e empresas), bem como um conjunto de conselhos estratégicos e operacionais destinados especificamente à União Europeia.”


Actualização [2006.03.03]: do boletim entretanto recebido, uma passagem realmente preocupante sobre a actual situação económica dos EUA:

“Para poder financiar a sua dívida, ou melhor as suas dívidas, os Estados Unidos absorvem 80% da poupança mundial. Esta situação obriga a que a sua economia (taxas de juro, produtividade...) permaneça significativamente mais atractiva perante os capitais internacionais do que qualquer outra economia do mundo (e que a confiança na sua economia e na sua moeda se mantenha forte). O controlo exercido pelos EUA e a sua correia de transmissão inglesa (que está agarrada ao destino do dólar devido aos montantes de créditos e activos nesta moeda) sobre os meios de comunicação internacionais, e em particular sobre a imprensa económica e financeira especializada tenta prolongar esta situação, literalmente uma matéria de segurança nacional. E não deixa de ser significativo que estes mesmos média não mencionem nem a Bolsa de Petróleo Iraniano nem a suspensão da publicação dos agregados M3. Tal como se viu na crise iraquiana, mas também em numerosos casos científicos, como por exemplo o do aquecimento global, a administração Bush mantem uma relação deveras complexa com a verdade, pelo que muitos analistas começam a duvidar da fiabilidade das estatísticas económicas e financeiras dos Estados Unidos. Estaremos na eminência de conhecer um caso ‘Enron’ de magnitude global? Será que o mundo está à beira de descobrir, tal como ocorreu com os números da União Saviética depois da Queda da Cortina de Ferro, que as estatísticas são de facto uma fraude? Não tarda muito para tirar a limpo.”

Evitar o pânico

A crise aguda de civilização em que estamos metidos aconselha duas coisas: estar atento e evitar o pânico. A melhor receita para a sobrevivência passa por suprir o atraso e desinformação sistemáticos dos média corporativos com informação proveniente de outras fontes, independentes ou simplesmente distintas do ópio disperso pelos média convencionais. Por outro lado, aconselha-se vivamente muito cuidado na tomada de decisões de investimento de médio e longo prazo. O mais provável é que bens como a terra fértil e as zonas habitacionais próximas dos nós de comunicações se venham a valorizar tremendamente nos próximos anos. Para já, o investimento em metais preciosos (como o ouro e a prata) são bem mais seguros do que quaisquer aplicações financeiras e planos de poupança/reforma e seguros de saúde. O mesmo ocorrerá infelizmente com todos os bens e serviços associados a emergências bélicas, sanitárias e sociais decorrentes do previsível agravamento da presente crise mundial. Num cenário de catástrofe financeira mundial, é de prever a falência de centenas de bancos e sociedades de investimento, já para não falar da falência de algumas dezenas de Estados (congelamento de salários e pensões de reforma, despedimentos nas Administrações Públicas, subidas vertiginosas de impostos, derivas nacionalistas, etc.) Se a crise vier a ocorrer, como se teme, não será fácil evitar o pânico. Mas se estivermos alerta, poderemos evitar o pior, e prepararmo-nos com coragem para uma longa e dolorosa metamorfose. O perigo de uma nova escalada bélica por parte da Administração Bush é eminente. Ninguém sabe, porém, quais poderão ser as suas consequências para o resto do mundo. Fala-se, cada vez mais, de um possível ataque nuclear contra Teerão! O melhor mesmo é começarmos desde já uma grande campanha contra a nova guerra em perspectiva, exigindo aos governos europeus que assumam as suas responsabilidades pela paz, ajudando ao mesmo tempo os EUA a partilharem as suas dificuldades com o resto do mundo.

LINKS

O boletim do LEAP/E2020 publica-se em Inglês e Francês, esperando-se para breve versões em Espanhol e Alemão.
LINK 1 (artigo citado na versão francesa e comentários);
LINK 2 (versão inglesa e comentários)
LEAP/E2020 PUBLIC COMMUNICATION, March 15, 2006. USA-Dollar-Iran / Confirmation of Global Systemic Crisis end of March 2006

Outras fontes sobre o mesmo tema:

Petrodólares, Petroeuros e a Dívida dos EUA

Asia must prepare for dollar collapse [Al Jazeera, Tuesday 28 March 2006]

“Masahiro Kawai, the ADB's head of regional economic integration, said on Tuesday: ‘Any shock hitting the US economy or the global market may change investors' perceptions given the existing global current account imbalance.
(...) Our suggestion to Asian countries is: Don't take this continuous financing of the US current account deficit as given. If something happens then East Asian economies have to be prepared.’”

Discontinuance of M3 [March 23, 2006 - H.6 (508)]

“As previously announced on November 10, 2005, the Board of Governors ceased publication of the M3 monetary aggregate with today's release. The Board also ceased publishing the following components: large-denomination time deposits, repurchase agreements (RPs), and Eurodollars. The Board will continue to publish institutional money market mutual funds as a memorandum item in this release.”

US$: Forget Iran, the problem's at home - by John Berthelsen, Asia Times online [20-3-2006]

“Of all the things that could wreck the US dollar - and there are many - the projected Tehran oil bourse, which is tentatively scheduled to open on March 20 to trade Iran's crude and other petroleum products in euros rather than US dollars, is probably not among them.
The much greater threat to the US currency is the US current account deficit, which ballooned to 7% of gross domestic product in the fourth quarter of 2005. The announcement drove the euro up to 1.202 against the US dollar as skittish traders renewed their concerns about the world's fiat currency.”

How China creates American jobs. - by John Plender, Finantial Times [20-3-2006]

“(...) I find it hard to believe that we are about to see a dollar collapse and an over-abrupt adjustment of global imbalances. Oil producers have to find a home for their surpluses. They may like the idea of turning the euro into a petrocurrency, but the euro and eurozone bond market cannot compete on liquidity with dollar markets.
(...) despite being a net debtor the US generates a big income surplues.
In a forthcoming paper for Lombard Street Research, Brian Reading argues that the US has not fallen into the widely predicted debt trap largely because its net income has been growing so much faster than net debt. Here is part of the explanation fo the dollar's failure to collapse despite the burgeoning current account deficit.”

The Lesson Drawn from Investing in US Ports — by Jawad Anani, Al-Hayat [16/03/2006]

“(...) the damage is already done and cannot be reversed. This lesson comes to remind us, we the Arabs, that the United States only wants us to deposit our funds at its banks or smoothly invest them in some hotels and real estates.”

No, the Iran Oil Bourse is not a casus belli... - by F. William Engdahl [10-3-2006]

“(...) the status of the dollar as reserve currency depends on the status of the United States as the world's unchallenged military superpower. In a sense, since August 1971 the dollar is no longer backed by gold. Instead, it is backed by F-16's and MI Abrams battle tanks, operating in some 130 US bases around the world, defending liberty and the dollar.”
...

“Until some combination of those Eurasian powers congeal in a cohesive challenge to the unbridled domination of the USA as sole superpower, there will be no Euro or Yen or even Chinese Yuan challenging the role of the dollar. The issue is of enormous importance, as it is vital to understand the true dynamics bringing the world to the brink of possible nuclear catastrophe today.”

The End of Dollar Hegemony - by Hon. Ron Paul of Texas. Um relatório clarificador sobre a actual crise financeira mundial, apresentado à Câmara de Representantes dos EUA em 15 de Fevereiro de 2006. Indispensável. [ Documento vídeo em linha desta comunicação (Windows Media Player) ]


Extracto da comunicação de Ron Paul à Câmara de Representantes dos EUA:

“For the most part the true victims aren't aware of how they pay the bills. The license to create money out of thin air allows the bills to be paid through price inflation. American citizens, as well as average citizens of Japan, China, and other countries suffer from price inflation, which represents the "tax" that pays the bills for our military adventures. That is until the fraud is discovered, and the foreign producers decide not to take dollars nor hold them very long in payment for their goods. Everything possible is done to prevent the fraud of the monetary system from being exposed to the masses who suffer from it. If oil markets replace dollars with Euros, it would in time curtail our ability to continue to print, without restraint, the world's reserve currency.

(...) the effort between 1980 and 2000 to fool the market as to the true value of the dollar proved unsuccessful. In the past 5 years the dollar has been devalued in terms of gold by more than 50%. You just can't fool all the people all the time, even with the power of the mighty printing press and money creating system of the Federal Reserve.

It is an unbelievable benefit to us to import valuable goods and export depreciating dollars. The exporting countries have become addicted to our purchases for their economic growth. This dependency makes them allies in continuing the fraud, and their participation keeps the dollar's value artificially high. If this system were workable long term, American citizens would never have to work again. We too could enjoy "bread and circuses" just as the Romans did, but their gold finally ran out and the inability of Rome to continue to plunder conquered nations brought an end to her empire.

The same thing will happen to us if we don't change our ways. Though we don't occupy foreign countries to directly plunder, we nevertheless have spread our troops across 130 nations of the world. Our intense effort to spread our power in the oil-rich Middle East is not a coincidence. But unlike the old days, we don't declare direct ownership of the natural resources-- we just insist that we can buy what we want and pay for it with our paper money. Any country that challenges our authority does so at great risk.”

John Williams' Shadow Government Statistics

“The 2005 to 2007 recession almost broke to the surface recently, with the Commerce Department's "advance" estimate of fourth-quarter 2005 GDP. The report was about as honest a one as Commerce has published in a number of years. Somehow, though, considering the Labor Department's increasing reporting shenanigans last month, the chances of the dawning of a new era of straight-forward economic reports at this time are nil. It is beyond common sense that the current political hacks will allow recession reporting to surface prior to the November election. What almost broke to the surface in the recent GDP reporting most certainly will be beaten back with a club in the months ahead. In general, our broad economic outlook has not changed. The 2005 to 2007 inflationary recession continues to deepen, and the approaching recession, inflation and risks of heavy dollar selling will offer a nightmarish environment for the still Pollyannaish financial markets. However, negative GDP growth is not likely to surface in regular government reporting until after the November 2006 election, given the rampant political manipulation of most key government numbers.”

The Global Class War - by Jeff Faux

(...) “it is not ‘China’ that is challenging the United States; it is a partnership between Chinese commissars who deliver the labor and American CEOs who deliver the capital and the technology.”

The Proposed Iranian Oil Bourse - by Krassimir Petrov

“A nation-state taxes its own citizens, while an empire taxes other nation-states. The history of empires, from Greek and Roman, to Ottoman and British, teaches that the economic foundation of every single empire is the taxation of other nations. The imperial ability to tax has always rested on a better and stronger economy, and as a consequence, a better and stronger military. One part of the subject taxes went to improve the living standards of the empire; the other part went to strengthen the military dominance necessary to enforce the collection of those taxes.”

Iran's Euro-denominated Oil Bourse to Open in March; US$ Crash Imminent! - by William Clark

“Similar to the Iraq war, military operations against Iran relate to the macroeconomics of 'petrodollar recycling' and the unpublicized but real challenge to US$ supremacy from the euro as an alternative oil transaction currency.”

Vancouver, Iran, Russia, Europe - by Jim Willie CB [January 30, 2006]

“The entire nuclear story is the disinformation about Iran. Can anyone remember the incessant drumbeat of Weapons of Mass Destruction concerning Iraq? Have we learned anything? It is a sad observation for me that Americans and their leaders do not learn from history, when it comes to bubbles, to dealing with tyrants who opposed communism, to misunderstanding cultures abroad. We were made fools (not me) about WMD in Iraq. We are being made fools about nuclear proliferation in Iran now. Few even at the Vancouver Gold Show seemed to identify the vast disinformation on the Iranian threat. The threat is to the Petro-Dollar superstructure banking system.

(...)

My view is that removal of the Petro-Dollar system could mean an increase of 2% to long-term US interest rates, a 2% increase to long-term US mortgage loan rates, a 20% decline in the USDollar exchange rates, a 20% decline in the S&P500 index, and a 20% decline in US housing prices. The end, or even the sunset, of this system would mean a gigantic lift to the gold price and crude oil price, likely to rise by at least 50%.”

Dick Cheney Speech at the Institute of Petroleum, Autumn 1999

“By some estimates there will be an average of two per cent annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead along with conservatively a three per cent natural decline in production from existing reserves. That means by 2010 we will need on the order of an additional fifty million barrels a day. So where is the oil going to come from? Governments and the national oil companies are obviously controlling about ninety per cent of the assets. Oil remains fundamentally a government business. While many regions of the world offer great oil opportunities, the Middle East with two thirds of the world's oil and the lowest cost, is still where the prize ultimately lies, even though companies are anxious lor greater access there, progress continues to be slow.”

Planos de guerra

Petrodollar Warfare: Dollars, Euros and the Upcoming Iranian Oil Bourse - by William Clark

“Indeed, there are good reasons for U.S. military commanders to be ‘horrified’ at the prospects of attacking Iran. In the December 2004 issue of the Atlantic Monthly, James Fallows reported that numerous high-level war-gaming sessions had recently been completed by Sam Gardiner, a retired Air Force colonel who has run war games at the National War College for the past two decades. Col. Gardiner summarized the outcome of these war games with this statement, ‘After all this effort, I am left with two simple sentences for policymakers: You have no military solution for the issues of Iran. And you have to make diplomacy work.’ ”

Is the Bush Administration Planning a Nuclear Holocaust? - by Michel Chossudovsky [2006-02-22]

“Will the US launch "Mini-nukes" against Iran in Retaliation for Tehran's "Non-compliance"?”

The Dangers of a Middle East Nuclear War - by Michel Chossudovsky [2006-02-17]

“The Pentagon has blurred the distinction between conventional battlefield weapons & nuclear bombs. The nuclear bunker buster bomb is presented as an instrument of peace-making & regime change, which will enhance global security.”

Petrodollars and Nuclear Weapons Proliferation: Understanding the Planned Assault on Iran - by Michael Keefer [2006-02-10]

“It is important to understand the scale of the war crimes that are being planned as well the fraudulent pretexts being advanced to legitimize this intended aggression.”

The hidden stakes in the Iran crisis - by Thierry Meyssan [2006-02-04]

“At the end of this operation, Washington should have complete control over the world's main hydrocarbon production and reserves. It will control the world economy without the need to share power.”

The Next War: Crossing the Rubicon - by John Pilger

“At present the dollar is, on paper, a worthless currency bearing the burden of a national debt exceeding $8 trillion and a trade deficit of more than 600 billion dollars. The cost of the Iraq adventure alone, according to the Nobel Prizewinning economist Joseph Stiglitz, could be $2 trillion. America's military empire, with its wars and 700-plus bases and limitless intrigues, is funded by creditors in Asia, principally China.”

Who Will Blow the Whistle Before We Attack Iran? - by Ray McGovern

“Anyone who has been near a TV in recent weeks has heard the drumbeat for war on Iran. The best guess for timing is next month.”

A piece of wisdom by Thomas Jefferson

“If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.”
Thomas Jefferson (1743-1826), US Founding Father

OAM #108 02 MAR 2006