O dia em que a China cumpriu a promessa de deixar cair o dólar
Qual vai ser a resposta americana ao Petro-Yuan, para além da intensificação das guerras militares e comerciais? Será o regresso da convertibilidade do dólar face ao ouro? A avaliar pela iniciativa do congressista Mooney, no passado dia 22 de março (ver texto mais abaixo), sim.
Vejamos rapidamente as principais datas do início e fim da hegemonia da moeda americana.
- 1944 - Bretton Woods system: 35 dólares americanos podem ser trocados por uma onça de ouro: hegemonia americana decorrente da sua participação financeira e militar na 2ª Guerra Mundial.
- 1971 - fim do acordo de Bretton Woods: o dólar americano transforma-se numa moeda flutuante meramente fiduciária—início do endividamento sistémico do hegemon.
- 2018, 22 de março - Alexander X. Mooney submete ao Congresso dos Estados Unidos o projeto de lei H.R.5404: "To define the dollar as a fixed weight of gold."
- 2018, 26 de março - a China lança o Petro-Yuan: contratos de compras futuras de petróleo denominados em yuans convertíveis em ouro.
O preço do petróleo mede-se, desde 26 de março de 2018, em dólares do Texas, euros de Brent, e yuans de Xangai
Shanghai crude futures roar into action as global merchants dominate trade
Meng Meng, Josephine Mason, Henning Gloystein
REUTERS, March 26, 2018 / 3:51 AM
BEIJING/SINGAPORE (Reuters) - China’s crude futures kicked off to a roaring start on Monday as western traders and Chinese majors eagerly traded the world’s newest financial oil instrument, which many expect to become a third global price benchmark alongside Brent and WTI crude.
China's New Yuan-Denominated Oil Futures Usher In a New Era in Global Trade
Sputnik International, 19:45 26.03.2018 (updated 19:46 26.03.2018)
China kicked off its first ever crude futures on Monday. According to observers, the country's yuan-denominated oil contracts could emerge as a brand new benchmark, providing Beijing with extra pricing powers and help it internationalize the yuan. This is especially important amid the ongoing tariff war between the US and China.
In strict accordance with its initial plan, China launched yuan-denominated oil futures on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange on March 26, thus challenging the dominance of the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks.
Ren Wei of South China Morning Post highlighted that China's recent move became possible due to the fact that the country had emerged as the largest oil importer in 2017, surpassing the United States.
The Yuan-Oil Future And Gold
Seeking Alpha, Mar. 30, 2018 2:00 AM ET
China does not intend to replace the petrodollar with its own currency, other than for her own energy and commodity imports. To put it into context, China imports about 8 million barrels of oil per day, mostly from the Eurasian continent, which compares with global daily demand of roughly 100 million barrels. China also produces her own oil to the tune of about 3.7 mbd, so if all of China's suppliers take yuan in payment, it leaves about 88% of global demand still being priced in dollars.
Therefore, there is for the moment little alarm in Western financial markets about this development. However, at the same time, US oil production is rising, and her imports declining, so even though the energy world is dominated by dollars, the relative importance between the US and China with respect to the international oil trade is rapidly shifting away from America.
[...]
There can be little doubt that the introduction of the yuan-denominated oil future has been a major strategic step for China. China will have been worried about undermining the dollar and global financial markets. It is not her style to act in bovine fashion in a porcelain factory. For the Chinese state, the priority is control of outcomes, but at some stage she had to begin to develop her own financial markets for them to be an effective alternative to the dollar.
[...]
The initial source of the dollar's decline measured in gold seems likely to be an acceleration of central bank demand for physical metal from the oil-exporting nations dealing with China. Some nations will be content to build their yuan reserves, or maybe sell some of them for other currencies, including the dollar. But others, particularly Russia, Iran, and possibly Qatar can be expected to increase their physical gold holdings by selling some of their yuan.
The introduction of the oil-for-yuan futures contract gives these nations the opportunity to match a sale of oil for yuan with a matching purchase of gold for yuan on two exchanges, Hong Kong and Dubai. Officially, the Chinese government has stood to one side with respect to this issue, but Hong Kong's gold exchange is in talks with Singapore, Dubai and Myanmar to establish an enhanced gold dealing, delivery and storage facility, with vaulting storage in the Qianhai free trade zone on the Chinese mainland.
A imprensa não viu, nem relatou, mas ocorreu...
O projeto de lei do senador Mooney deve ser lido na íntegra, por ser uma análise sucinta e certeira do declínio do dólar, mas também pela medida extrema que propõe: a reversão do chamado Nixon shock, ou seja, o regresso à convertibilidade da moeda americana em ouro.
Esta parece ser, aliás, uma resposta preventiva racional ao que a China faria, e tinha sido anunciado, dois dias depois da apresentação do projeto de lei H.R.5404: a inauguração no mercado de futuros de Xangai de uma plataforma de compra e venda de petróleo cujo preço é denominado em yuans convertíveis em ouro!
Esta parece ser, aliás, uma resposta preventiva racional ao que a China faria, e tinha sido anunciado, dois dias depois da apresentação do projeto de lei H.R.5404: a inauguração no mercado de futuros de Xangai de uma plataforma de compra e venda de petróleo cujo preço é denominado em yuans convertíveis em ouro!
Não por acaso os bancos centrais de países como a China, a Rússia e a Índia têm adquirido centenas de toneladas de ouro ao longo da última década. Esperemos que Portugal não tenha ainda comprometido todas as suas reservas (como Cadilhe chegou um dia a propor), nomeadamente sob a forma de swaps!
H. R. 5404
To define the dollar as a fixed weight of gold.
115th CONGRESS
2d Session
IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
March 22, 2018
Mr. Mooney of West Virginia introduced the following bill; which was referred to the Committee on Financial Services
A BILL
To define the dollar as a fixed weight of gold.
Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled,
SECTION 1. FINDINGS.
Congress finds the following:
(1) The United States dollar has lost 30 percent of its purchasing power since 2000, and 96 percent of its purchasing power since the end of the gold standard in 1913.
(2) Under the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent inflation objective, the dollar loses half of its purchasing power every generation, or 35 years.
(3) American families need long-term price stability to meet their household spending needs, save money, and plan for retirement.
(4) The Federal Reserve policy of long-term inflation has made American manufacturing uncompetitive, raising the cost of United States manufactured goods by more than 40 percent since 2000, compared to less than 20 percent in Germany and France.
(5) Between 2000 and 2010, United States manufacturing employment shrunk by one-third after holding steady for 30 years at nearly 20,000,000 jobs.
(6) The American economy needs a stable dollar, fixed exchange rates, and money supply controlled by the market not the government.
(7) The gold standard puts control of the money supply with the market instead of the Federal Reserve.
(8) The gold standard means legal tender defined by and convertible into a certain quantity of gold.
(9) Under the gold standard through 1913 the United States economy grew at an annual average of four percent, one-third larger than the growth rate since then and twice the level since 2000.
(10) The international gold exchange standard from 1914 to 1971 did not provide for a United States dollar convertible into gold, and therefore helped cause the Great Depression and stagflation.
(11) The Federal Reserve’s trickle down policy of expanding the money supply with no demand for it has enriched the owners of financial assets but endangered the jobs, wages, and savings of blue collar workers.
(12) Restoring American middle-class prosperity requires change in monetary policy authorized to Congress in Article I, Section 8, Clause 5 of the Constitution.
SEC. 2. DEFINE THE DOLLAR IN TERMS OF GOLD.
Effective 30 months after the date of enactment of this Act—
(1) the Secretary of the Treasury (in this Act referred to as the “Secretary”) shall define the dollar in terms of a fixed weight of gold, based on that day’s closing market price of gold; and
(2) Federal Reserve Banks shall make Federal Reserve notes exchangeable with gold at the statutory gold definition of the dollar.
SEC. 3. DISCLOSURE OF HOLDING.
During the 30-month period following the date of enactment of this Act, the United States Government shall take timely and reasonable steps to disclose all of its holdings of gold, together with a contemporaneous report of any United States governmental purchases or sales, thus enhancing the ability of the market and of market participants to arrive at the fixed dollar-gold parity in an orderly fashion.
Overview
https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/5404
Text
https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/5404/text
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