Pico petrolífero

O petróleo regressou aos 80 $/b.

Se o Pico Petrolífero Mundial chegar em 2014 (previsão mais recente), ou mesmo em 2020, esqueçam os aeroportos!

Published Mar 10 2010 by Eureka Alert!, Archived Mar 11 2010
World crude oil production may peak a decade earlier than some predict
by American Chemical Society press release

In a finding that may speed efforts to conserve oil and intensify the search for alternative fuel sources, scientists in Kuwait predict that world conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014 — almost a decade earlier than some other predictions. Their study is in ACS' Energy & Fuels, a bi-monthly journal.

Ibrahim Nashawi and colleagues point out that rapid growth in global oil consumption has sparked a growing interest in predicting "peak oil" — the point where oil production reaches a maximum and then declines. Scientists have developed several models to forecast this point, and some put the date at 2020 or later. One of the most famous forecast models, called the Hubbert model, accurately predicted that oil production would peak in the United States in 1970. The model has since gained in popularity and has been used to forecast oil production worldwide. However, recent studies show that the model is insufficient to account for more complex oil production cycles of some countries. Those cycles can be heavily influenced by technology changes, politics, and other factors, the scientists say.

The new study describe development of a new version of the Hubbert model that accounts for these individual production trends to provide a more realistic and accurate oil production forecast. Using the new model, the scientists evaluated the oil production trends of 47 major oil-producing countries, which supply most of the world's conventional crude oil. They estimated that worldwide conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014, years earlier than anticipated. The scientists also showed that the world's oil reserves are being depleted at a rate of 2.1 percent a year. The new model could help inform energy-related decisions and public policy debate, they suggest. — in "World crude oil production may peak a decade earlier than some predict" | Energy Bulletin.

A dependência portuguesa do petróleo e do gás natural é enorme. Ao contrário do que as barragens de contra-informação do governo e da EDP têm vindo a fazer crer, a energia eléctrica que consumimos depende muito do gás natural e do fuel diesel, e mais grave ainda, a circulação de mercadorias por esse país fora depende quase exclusivamente do transporte rodoviário, como ficou demonstrado durante a crise provocada pela greve internacional de camionistas de Junho de 2008.

A destruição da linha férrea portuguesa, iniciada por Aníbal Cavaco Silva, o actual presidente da república (que talvez por estas e outras se mostra muito satisfeito com o PEC), e o atraso na mudança de bitola das fracas ligações ferroviárias existentes entre Portugal e Espanha, coloca Portugal numa situação particularmente frágil quando projectamos os impactos previsíveis de uma antecipação do Pico Petrolífero. Com o petróleo de novo nos $80/b, e a previsão da sua escassez a curto prazo, precipitará inevitavelmente uma crise económica, social e política sem precedentes no mundo.

Daqui que há muito venha desvalorizando os devaneios governamentais em volta do seu irrealista plano de transportes, invariavelmente ao serviço dos objectivos de curto prazo do Bloco Central do Betão.

OAM 697—10 Mar 2010 (última actualização: 13 Mar 11:25)