A bolha de xisto já era!

As reservas dos cinco maiores campos petrolíferos mundiais chegariam apenas para oito anos de consumo caso fossem as únicas disponíveis

1. Ghawar (Saudi Arabia): 70x10E9 barris
2. Burgan (Kuwait): 72x10E9 barris
3. Safaniya (Saudi Arabia): 50x10E9 barris
4. Rumaila (Iraq): 17,8x10E9 barris
5. West Qurna-2 (Iraq); 13x10E9 barris

Total: 222.800.000.000 barris

Produção diária segundo a EIA (2013): 76.053.500
Produção anual segundo a EIA (2013): 27.759.527.500
Duração das reservas caso fossem as únicas disponíveis: 8 anos

Este indicador é bem sintomático de uma outra constatação: o pico do petróleo ocorreu em 2005, e a fase de declínio da produção mundial poderá ocorrer a qualquer momento até 2030.

A produção não convencional servirá certamente para mitigar por algum tempo o impacto da escassez petrolífera no preço geral da energia. Mas as limitações já evidentes do fracking vem confimar as  previsões realizadas em 1956 (Hubbert) e 1972 (Meadows et al.) sobre o fim do ciclo do petróleo e sobre o colapso do crescimento exponencial que a humanidade conheceu desde 1887 para cá.

O que sempre escrevemos sobre o petróleo e gás de xisto —uma manobra americana de dilação— veio finalmente ao de cima: a festa do xisto acabou.

Percebe-se agora melhor como Angela Merkel terá conseguido convencer Putin e o novo líder da Ucrânia a terem juízo.

Ou seja, no que toca à Rússia, manter a Europa como seu fiel cliente e parceiro, como importador de gás e petróleo, e exportador de tecnologia, é a solução que mais lhe convém para não ficar dependente de um único cliente: a China. Quanto à Ucrânia, o melhor mesmo é este país à beira de uma guerra civil cessar imediatamente as hostilidades e preparar-se para entrar na UE, criando campo para um fortalecimento futuro das relações ente a União Europeia e a Rússia.

A linha do Tratado de Tordesilhas 2.0 deslocou-se um pouco mais para Oriente. Ainda bem!

The World’s Five Most Important Oil Fields
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/08/2014 13:38 -0400. ZeroHedge

Much has been made about the role that hydraulic fracturing – or fracking -- has played in revolutionizing the energy landscape, unlocking vast new reserves of oil trapped in shale rock. This “tight oil” is pouring into the global pool of oil supplies at a crucial time, preventing oil prices from spiking in an age of high demand and geopolitical turmoil.

But the world still relies overwhelmingly on conventional oil production from existing fields, many of which are in decline. The Middle East has dominated the world of oil for half a century and as the list below shows, it remains king. Here are the top five most important oil fields in the world.


US shale boom is over, energy revolution needed to avert blackouts
By Dr. Nafeez Ahmed, Earth Insight, hosted by The Guardian

I hate to say I told you so, but...

In 2012, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast that the US would outpace Saudi Arabia in oil production thanks to the shale boom by 2020, becoming a net exporter by 2030. The forecast was seen by many as decisive evidence of the renewal of the oil age, while informed detractors were at best ignored, at worst ridiculed. [...]

Now IEA chief economist Fatih Birol says:

"In Europe we are facing the risk of the lights going off. This is not a joke."

We need $48 trillion of new investment to keep the lights on - and it's far from clear that investing in increasingly expensive unconventional oil and gas is going to cut it, without serious impacts on the global economy.

Currently, already, the IEA report reveals that over 80% of oil company investment is going into making up for exhausted fields where production is in decline. The agency also calls to ramp up investments in renewables and increasing efficiency, along with regulatory reform to incentivise investments, as part of the package.

While the fossil fuel empire is crumbling, the renewable energy sector has received 60% of total investment in power plants from 2000 to 2012.


Scientists vindicate 'Limits to Growth' – urge investment in 'circular economy
By Dr. Nafeez Ahmed, Earth Insight, hosted by The Guardian

Its first report in 1972, The Limits to Growth, was conducted by a scientific team at the Massachusetts Institute for Technology (MIT), and warned that limited availability of natural resources relative to rising costs would undermine continued economic growth by around the second decade of the 21st century.

Although widely ridiculed, recent scientific reviews confirm that the original report's projections in its 'base scenario' remain robust. In 2008, Australia's federal government scientific research agency CSIRO concluded that The Limits to Growth forecast of potential "global ecological and economic collapse coming up in the middle of the 21st Century" due to convergence of "peak oil, climate change, and food and water security", is "on-track." Actual current trends in these areas "resonate strongly with the overshoot and collapse displayed in the book's 'business-as-usual scenario.'"