quarta-feira, janeiro 21, 2015

Vem aí uma nova economia

Políticos e bancos centrais esgotaram soluções. É tempo de mudar!

Políticos e bancos centrais estão ambos falidos e sem soluções. Já só conseguem agravar os problemas. A diarreia monetária e a guerra cambial têm uma consequência óbvia e determinante: destruir o valor do dinheiro, destruir os juros do capital e destruir o valor dos ativos não especulativos. Estas são as consequências negativas, cujo agravamento acabou por colocar um ponto final à longa era de crescimento inflacionista dos últimos 100 anos—1896-1996 (FISCHER, D H, 1996).

A destruição da economia virtual especulativa, até agora protegida pelos bancos centrais, é, por outro lado, uma consequência positiva do colapso financeiro, económico, social e cultural em curso.

O fim do modelo de capitalismo especulativo-e-pseudo-keynesiano tem um efeito sobre a riqueza disponível: esta, ou se aninha no mercado obrigacionista, por mais algum tempo, com rendimentos relativamente protegidos, mas declinantes, ou arrisca as suas apostas em alternativas que começam a renascer das cinzas de uma economia que, depois de tocar no fundo, inicia uma nova metamorfose.

Os rebentos brotam, uma vez mais, do tecido imenso das nano, micro e pequenas empresas. As oportunidades multiplicam-se, ainda que não sejam óbvias as oportunidades e as apostas que irão modelar a economia mundial dos próximos 80 ou 120 anos.

O artigo “Macro Digest: Endgame for central bankers”, de Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist & CIO do Saxo Bank, ontem publicado pelo TradingFloor, é certeiro e dá que pensar...

Saxo Bank Warns "This Is The Endgame For Central Banks"
Zero Hedge. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/20/2015 22:15 -0500


Major central banks claim to be independent, but they are totally under the control of politicians. Many developed countries have tried to anchor an independent central bank to offset pressure from politicians and that’s all well and good in principle until the economy spins out of control – at zero-bound growth and rates central banks and politicians becomes one in a survival mode where rules are broken and bent to fit an agenda of buying more time.

Just looks to the Eurozone crisis over the past eight years – if not in the letter of law, then in spirit, every single criterion of the EU treaty has been violated by the need to “keep the show on the road”. No, the conclusion has to be that there are no independent central banks anywhere! There are some who pretend to be, but not a single one operates in true independence.


The US dollar is putting pressure not only on US itself but also the world. A journalist asked me last week: Who benefits from a stronger US dollar?  I still owe him an answer because very few benefit. In fact the world has two growth engines: The US and emerging markets. Both are pretty much US dollar economies. Debt (US dollar funding) in EM has exploded to an extent that many including the World Bank now call a for risk of “Perfect Storm in EM”. Both US and EM became credit junkies over the QE-to-infinity era in the US. The law of unintended consequences.


Another unintended consequence was that energy was the trigger for the crisis in 2008 as rising energy prices took five trillion US dollars out of the economy – which became the catalyst for the Eurozone crisis and US banking bailout. Now eight year later the drop in energy has broad spillover effects as the wealth is transferred from sovereign wealth funds in resource countries to consumers.

That’s good for Main Street and bad for Wall Street as the “bid” in the assets disappear as these sovereign buyers needs to draw down on their wealth instead of buying overseas assets.


The world should be concerned when volatility is too low, it’s a sign of the market not allocating money correctly. The one lesson everyone needs to learn is that for a market based economy to function you need to allocate capital to the highest marginal real return of capital. Not to the most politically connected.

When history of 2015 is written I have no doubt that the Paris terror act and SNB's removal of the floor will stand out – both happened less than two weeks into 2015, although that is random, what is not random is that market volatility has been rising directly and indirectly through a misallocation of capital directed by the central bank system.

Many central banks will envy the SNB for its move last week, as it at least tries to regain some control of its future, but the conclusion remains: central banks have as a group lost credibility and when the ECB starts QE this week the beginning of the end for central banks is completed. They are running out of time – that’s the real real bottom line: the SNB ran out of time, the ECB will runout of time this week, and the Fed, Bank of Japan and the Bank of England ran out of time in 2014.

What comes now is a new reality – the SNB move was a true paradigm shift – we can no longer look at central banks, the markets and extend-and-pretend in the same light as we did last Wednesday (the day before the SNB pounced).

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