 |
| “Between 2007 and 2017, world oil consumption grew at an average annual rate of 1.0 percent.” —in World Oil 2018-2050: World Energy Annual Report (Part 2) by DENNIS COYNE posted on 07/26/2018. Peak Oil Barrel |
O novo drama chinês
Ao contrário da economia americana—em particular a que se seguiu à guerra civil de 1861-65 e que viria a desenvolver-se de forma endógena graças ao seu imenso território despovoado e à sua decisão de atrair pessoas e capitais de todo o mundo, com larguíssima predominância de europeus—o crescimento da China depois de séculos de hibernação imperial, estimulado em parte pela inesperada visita do presidente americano Richard Nixon a Pequim em 1972 (1), baseou-se num modelo de competição comercial externa alavancada na oferta de biliões de horas de trabalho barato e desprovido de direitos sociais. Este modelo permitiu à China importar em pouco tempo todas as virtudes e vícios do capitalismo industrial e financeiro ao mesmo tempo que acumulava superavits comerciais e reservas financeiras como nenhum outro país no mundo. Este modelo foi um sucesso. Para as desenvolvidas economias americana, europeia e japonesa, na medida em que aliviaram a pressão inflacionária sistémica do petróleo (pico petrolífero americano e formação do cartel da OPEP) e do trabalho, bem como dos efeitos perversos do consumismo. Para a China, porque lhe permitiu atrair investimento, conhecimentos técnicos e encomendas como nunca vira em toda a sua história de mais de dois mil anos. Tudo correu sobre rodas enquanto o mundo crescia a bom ritmo. No entanto, à medida que as assimetrias do crescimento aumentaram, e mais países entraram numa espiral de endividamento para manter os seus níveis históricos de bem estar, o caldo azedou. O protecionismo defendido e praticado por Donald Trump é, afinal, uma resposta racional à perda de competitividade da economia americana, nomeadamente face aos países asiáticos (2).
O crescimento industrial e pós-industrial depende, em primeiro lugar, do trabalho, seja este realizado por humanos, por outros animais, por máquinas, ou por nuvens de computação. O trabalho, por sua vez, depende do consumo de energia. Quanto mais energia houver, ou seja, quanto mais esta for economicamente acessível, maior disponibilidade haverá para a criação e o crescimento. Pelo contrário, à medida que a produção de energia encarece, haverá menos condições para o crescimento. É isto que tem vindo a suceder de forma cada vez mais indisfarçável às fontes de energia que alimentaram o crescimento exponencial da humanidade desde meados do século 19: carvão, petróleo, gás natural. As chamadas energias alternativas não são alternativa, e consumir menos também não é—o que desafia o regresso do populismo verde como saída limpa para os prognósticos cataclísmicos da comunidade científica do IPCC (3) (4).
O pico da produção petrolífera na China (iniciada na década de 1960) chegaria em 2015, dependendo agora a expansão da sua economia—cujo trabalho barato compete há já alguns anos com os custos laborais do Bangladesh, do Vietname, da Índia, da Indonésia ou do México (5)—não só do uso imparável de carvão poluente (a sua principal fonte energética), como de importações maciças de petróleo do Médio Oriente, Líbia, Angola, Canadá, Venezuela, etc. Esta irremediável dependência energética forçou a China relançar sob outro nome (Belt & Road/ Faixa e Rota) a velha Rota da Seda. O objetivo desta iniciativa é claro: garantir o acesso da China aos principais mercados de energia, ao mesmo tempo que mantem bem abertas as principais rotas comerciais da Eurásia, e ainda as que se dirigem a África e ao continente americano. É um binómio compreensível, mas não são favas contadas. O crescimento acelerado da Índia, mas sobretudo a explosão demográfca africana, irão disputar à China e ao resto do mundo a partilha dos recursos energéticos, minerais e alimentares disponíveis, cujos preços, pela sua escassez progressiva (a água potável é um dos casos mais dramáticos), tendem a manter-se elevados. À medida que forem rebentando sucessivas bolhas de crédito, com especial incidência nas dívidas soberanas, a moeda de troca pela energia necessária ao crescimento económico, ou até à simples manutenção das economias de crescimento zero, será cada vez mais o resultado palpável do trabalho produtivo, ou seja, bens consumíveis, como a água, bens alimentares, e produtos tecnológicos e culturais transacionáveis. O protecionismo que cresce em todo o mundo reflete, aliás, a tomada de consciência desta nova realidade. Travar a entrada dos imigrantes da fome e da guerra na Europa e na América, ao mesmo tempo que se pilham os recursos energéticos, minerais e naturais de países e continentes inteiros não é solução. Os dilemas e a tragédia começam precisamente aqui: a população mundial estava a aumentar em 2018 pouco mais de 1% ao ano, enquanto a economia crescia ligeiramente acima dos 3% em 2017, mas o aumento do PIB per capita estimado não ia além dos 1,9%. A demografia e o envelhecimento comem, assim, boa parte da expetativa de uma melhoria agregada da prosperidade e do bem-estar sociais. Os países mais ricos já perceberam que o crescimento tem limites e que estes se sentem na carne, enquanto os países mais pobres entendem, por outro lado, que a convergência com os ricos pode não passar de um sonho de verão. Por isso arriscam viagens perigosas em direção aos Estados Unidos da América e à Europa ocidental.
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| The United States is the world’s largest oil consumer (20%); the European Union is the world’s second largest oil consumer 14%); China is the world’s third largest oil consumer (13%) —in World Oil 2018-2050: World Energy Annual Report (Part 2) by DENNIS COYNE posted on 07/26/2018. Peak Oil Barrel |
Onde está a energia que propulsiona o crescimento económico?
São estas as grandes regiões da produção petrolífera mundial: Médio Oriente, Rússia e China, Mar do Norte (Noruega e Reino Unido), África, Estados Unidos, Canadá, Golfo do México, Venezuela e Brasil. Metade dos maiores produtores africanos de petróleo encontra-se na costa ocidental de um continente em expansão demográfica, nomeadamente no historicamente rico Golfo da Guiné: Angola, Nigéria, Guiné Equatorial, Congo, Gabão, Gana. Percebe-se nesta geografia a crescente importância do pequeno retângulo português e da sua vasta Zona Económica Exclusiva, não só por ser parte da União Europeia, mas também por estar situado entre as três principais placas tectónicas do planeta (euroasiática, africana, norte-americana e sul-americana), e ainda pelas suas relações históricas com países como a China, Angola, Moçambique, Brasil, Venezuela, Reino Unido, Estados Unidos e Canadá. Portugal poderá tornar-se um dos principais interlocutores pacíficos do ranger das placas geoestratégicas globais. Não por acaso Estados Unidos e China parecem disputar, lado a lado, os mais recentes investimentos nos setores estratégicos portugueses famintos de capital: energia, infraestruturas de transportes, imobiliário, setores da saúde, seguros e banca.
A China, ao contrário dos Estados Unidos, que é um país muito rico em petróleo, gás natural e recursos alimentares, e da Europa, porque o maior agregado de reservas petrolíferas se encontram na sua imediata periferia, precisa de recorrer a recursos financeiros gigantescos, nomeadamente sob a forma de investimento externo e softpower, para a garantia do seu abastecimento energético externo. As alternativas endógenas de médio-longo prazo, ou são insuficientes (energia hídrica, solar e eólica), ou são letais (carvão). Ou seja, apesar de crescer mais depressa do que a América e do que o velho continente europeu, a vantagem que a China ainda leva sobre os países tecnologicamente avançados e economicamente maduros poderá não chegar para garantir por muito mais tempo o crescimento exponencial do seu consumo energético. Outros, sobretudo a África, vão precisar de petróleo, gás natural, ouro e outros metais raros... A recente formação do embrião de uma União Económica Africana mostra que o ciclo da livre espoliação dos recursos africanos está a chegar ao fim. O perigo de um regresso da China ao isolamento imperial poderá, por todas estas razões, ser menos inverosímil do que parece. A nova China não deseja um tal retrocesso. A recente concentração de poderes em Xin Jinping, e a ofensiva contra a democracia que prevalece em Hong Kong, suscitam uma reflexão profunda sobre o que estará a empurrar uma vez mais a burocracia chinesa para posições defensivas, potencialmente isolacionistas.
Nem a Rússia, nem a China, poderão controlar a Eurásia e portanto o mundo segundo a célebre teoria do Pivot Geográfico da História de Halford John Mackinder. Resta caminharmos para um Novo Tratado de Tordesilhas onde se garanta uma redistribuição justa da energia necessária ao crescimento e desenvolvimento da humanidade, sabendo que uma nova era de crescimento lento e de equilíbrio está a nascer, e que poderá ser excecionalmente criativa—ou destrutiva (6). Em vez de crescimento material, é a vez de entrarmos numa era de crescimento imaterial exponencial, científico, tecnológico e cultural.
Aprendemos pacificamente a conhecer a China ao longo de 500 anos. É a altura de a China aprender a conhecer o Ocidente com a mesma humildade.
POST SCRIPTUM — A China está a tornar-se uma enorme dor de cabeça para o mundo. Não porque os chineses sejam gente má ou aldrabona por natureza, mas porque as suas necessidades de energia, já hoje, e a prazo, são insustentáveis e em grande medida causadoras das tensões visíveis na Venezuela, em África e no Médio Oriente. Em breve, o que começou por ser o protecionismo americano será também o protecionismo europeu, africano, etc. A China precisa de energia, de matérias primas e de comida (soja, etc.) em quantidades astronómicas. Por isso onde estes recursos existem, salvo raras exceções, há milhares de chineses. O caso da Líbia foi a este título paradigmático, quer em 2011, quer em 2014.
GAIL TVERBERG
Seven Reasons Why We Should Not Depend on Imported Goods from China
Posted on June 12, 2019, by Gail Tverberg
If a person doesn’t understand how badly the energy situation is working out for China, or how important energy consumption is, it is easy to think that the problems China is facing are primarily tariff-related. In fact, China’s situation is a very worrisome one, with or without tariffs being added.
To fix the situation, China would need a very cheap, non-intermittent, locally produced, non-polluting additional energy source. This energy source would also need to be rapidly scalable. Such an energy resource doesn’t appear to be available.
NOTAS
Posted on May 22, 2019, by Gail Tverberg
Nearly everyone wonders, “Why is Donald Trump crazy enough to impose tariffs on imports from other countries? How could this possibly make sense?”
As long as the world economy is growing rapidly, it makes sense for countries to cooperate with each other. With the use of cooperation, scarce resources can become part of supply lines that allow the production of complex goods, such as computers, requiring materials from around the world. The downsides of cooperation include:
(a) The use of more oil to transport goods around the world;
(b) The more rapid exhaustion of resources of all kinds around the world; and
(c) Growing wage disparity, as workers from high-wage countries compete more directly with workers from low-wage countries.
These issues can be tolerated as long as the world economy is growing fast enough. As the saying goes, “A rising tide lifts all boats.”
In this post, I will explain what is going wrong and how Donald Trump’s actions fit in with the situation we are facing. Strangely enough, there is a physics aspect to what is happening, even though it is likely that Donald Trump and the voters who elected him would probably not recognize this. In fact, the world economy seems to be on the cusp of a shrinking-back event, with or without the tariffs. Adding tariffs is an indirect way of allowing the US to obtain a better position in the new, shrunken economy if this is really possible.
3. “The true feasibility of moving away from fossil fuels”
Posted on April 9, 2019, by Gail Tverberg
One of the great misconceptions of our time is the belief that we can move away from fossil fuels if we make suitable choices on fuels. In one view, we can make the transition to a low-energy economy powered by wind, water, and solar. In other versions, we might include some other energy sources, such as biofuels or nuclear, but the story is not very different.
The problem is the same regardless of what lower bound a person chooses: our economy is way too dependent on consuming an amount of energy that grows with each added human participant in the economy. This added energy is necessary because each person needs food, transportation, housing, and clothing, all of which are dependent upon energy consumption. The economy operates under the laws of physics, and history shows disturbing outcomes if energy consumption per capita declines.
4. “Have We Already Passed World Peak Oil and World Peak Coal?”
Posted on February 22, 2019, by Gail Tverberg
Most people expect that our signal of an impending reduction in world oil or coal production will be high prices. Looking at historical data [...], this is precisely the opposite of the correct price signal. Oil and coal supplies decline because prices fall too low for producers. These producers make voluntary cutbacks because the prices they receive fall below their cost of production. There often are supply gluts at the same time.
This strange situation arises because prices must be high enough for the producers at the same time that goods and services made by oil (and other energy products) are inexpensive enough for consumers to afford. There is a two-way battle taking place:
(1) Prices producers require tend to rise over time, because of depletion. The easiest to extract a portion of any resource (such as oil, coal, copper, or lithium) tends to be removed first. What is left tends to be deeper, lower quality, or otherwise more difficult to extract cheaply.
(2) Prices consumers can afford for discretionary goods (such as cell phones and automobiles) tend to fall for a combination of reasons:
Wages of many workers fall because of competition from lower cost labor in other countries.
Some jobs are eliminated through the use of computers or robots.
Young people are increasingly being required to pay for higher education (beyond that which is provided free), leaving many with loans to repay, reducing their discretionary income.
Changes to US healthcare law (mostly starting January 1, 2014) lead to required health insurance premiums. While some citizens find cost savings in this approach, healthy young people often experience cutbacks in discretionary income as a result.
Rents and home prices keep rising faster than incomes.
When the discretionary income of the many non-elite workers of the world falls, they buy fewer finished goods and services. Finished goods and services are manufactured using commodities of many kinds, including oil, coal, copper, iron ore, and fresh water. When discretionary demand falls, commodity prices tend to fall. This is the problem we are encountering now. It tends to cause the prices of many commodities to fall below the cost of production. Eventually, producers decide to quit because production is no longer profitable. This is the issue that leads to peak oil, coal or copper.
5. Where in the world is cheap labor?
By David Whitford, editor-at-largeMarch 22, 2011: 10:29 AM ET
Fortune
The FLA brings together multinational companies like Nike (NKE, Fortune 500), Adidas and Hanes (HBI); universities like Princeton and Notre Dame; and NGOs like the National Consumers League and Human Rights First to end sweat-shop working conditions in factories around the world. I spoke to van Heerden last week, shortly after he returned from a trip to China, where the inflation rate has reached nearly 5%, food inflation is more than 10%, and double-digit increases in the minimum wage are suddenly the norm.
Is China still an option for global manufacturers seeking lower costs of production?
It's an incredibly fast-moving situation. Labor markets which we previously thought were inexhaustible, like China and India, have actually tightened up quite dramatically. Employers can't get workers. Wages have gone up. Add to that the energy cost increases, and the factories, the contract manufacturers, are now suddenly squeezed. So they're turning around to their buyers -- to the retailers or the brands -- and they're saying, "Hey, my prices need to go up." And the brands are saying, "Whoa! We don't think we can pass those prices on to the consumer." There's something of a train smash looming.
6. How energy shortages really affect the economy
Posted on August 27, 2018, by Gail Tverberg
The more a person looks at the story of how rising oil prices might allow oil extraction indefinitely, the less reasonable it seems. If the story about oil prices rising endlessly were true, we would have seen coal prices rise endlessly in Europe a century ago, when it was the dominant form of supplemental energy available. It didn’t happen.
Última atualização: 20/6/2019, 21:29 WET
3. “The true feasibility of moving away from fossil fuels”
Posted on April 9, 2019, by Gail Tverberg
One of the great misconceptions of our time is the belief that we can move away from fossil fuels if we make suitable choices on fuels. In one view, we can make the transition to a low-energy economy powered by wind, water, and solar. In other versions, we might include some other energy sources, such as biofuels or nuclear, but the story is not very different.
The problem is the same regardless of what lower bound a person chooses: our economy is way too dependent on consuming an amount of energy that grows with each added human participant in the economy. This added energy is necessary because each person needs food, transportation, housing, and clothing, all of which are dependent upon energy consumption. The economy operates under the laws of physics, and history shows disturbing outcomes if energy consumption per capita declines.
4. “Have We Already Passed World Peak Oil and World Peak Coal?”
Posted on February 22, 2019, by Gail Tverberg
Most people expect that our signal of an impending reduction in world oil or coal production will be high prices. Looking at historical data [...], this is precisely the opposite of the correct price signal. Oil and coal supplies decline because prices fall too low for producers. These producers make voluntary cutbacks because the prices they receive fall below their cost of production. There often are supply gluts at the same time.
This strange situation arises because prices must be high enough for the producers at the same time that goods and services made by oil (and other energy products) are inexpensive enough for consumers to afford. There is a two-way battle taking place:
(1) Prices producers require tend to rise over time, because of depletion. The easiest to extract a portion of any resource (such as oil, coal, copper, or lithium) tends to be removed first. What is left tends to be deeper, lower quality, or otherwise more difficult to extract cheaply.
(2) Prices consumers can afford for discretionary goods (such as cell phones and automobiles) tend to fall for a combination of reasons:
Wages of many workers fall because of competition from lower cost labor in other countries.
Some jobs are eliminated through the use of computers or robots.
Young people are increasingly being required to pay for higher education (beyond that which is provided free), leaving many with loans to repay, reducing their discretionary income.
Changes to US healthcare law (mostly starting January 1, 2014) lead to required health insurance premiums. While some citizens find cost savings in this approach, healthy young people often experience cutbacks in discretionary income as a result.
Rents and home prices keep rising faster than incomes.
When the discretionary income of the many non-elite workers of the world falls, they buy fewer finished goods and services. Finished goods and services are manufactured using commodities of many kinds, including oil, coal, copper, iron ore, and fresh water. When discretionary demand falls, commodity prices tend to fall. This is the problem we are encountering now. It tends to cause the prices of many commodities to fall below the cost of production. Eventually, producers decide to quit because production is no longer profitable. This is the issue that leads to peak oil, coal or copper.
5. Where in the world is cheap labor?
By David Whitford, editor-at-largeMarch 22, 2011: 10:29 AM ET
Fortune
The FLA brings together multinational companies like Nike (NKE, Fortune 500), Adidas and Hanes (HBI); universities like Princeton and Notre Dame; and NGOs like the National Consumers League and Human Rights First to end sweat-shop working conditions in factories around the world. I spoke to van Heerden last week, shortly after he returned from a trip to China, where the inflation rate has reached nearly 5%, food inflation is more than 10%, and double-digit increases in the minimum wage are suddenly the norm.
Is China still an option for global manufacturers seeking lower costs of production?
It's an incredibly fast-moving situation. Labor markets which we previously thought were inexhaustible, like China and India, have actually tightened up quite dramatically. Employers can't get workers. Wages have gone up. Add to that the energy cost increases, and the factories, the contract manufacturers, are now suddenly squeezed. So they're turning around to their buyers -- to the retailers or the brands -- and they're saying, "Hey, my prices need to go up." And the brands are saying, "Whoa! We don't think we can pass those prices on to the consumer." There's something of a train smash looming.
6. How energy shortages really affect the economy
Posted on August 27, 2018, by Gail Tverberg
The more a person looks at the story of how rising oil prices might allow oil extraction indefinitely, the less reasonable it seems. If the story about oil prices rising endlessly were true, we would have seen coal prices rise endlessly in Europe a century ago, when it was the dominant form of supplemental energy available. It didn’t happen.
Última atualização: 20/6/2019, 21:29 WET
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