Portugal 36

2009: visão, lucidez e coragem - precisam-se!

"In December 2005, the Government [of Sweden] appointed a commission to draw up a comprehensive programme to reduce Sweden's dependence on oil. There were several reasons for this. The price of oil affects Sweden's growth and employment. Oil still plays a major role for peace and security throughout the world. There is a great potential for Swedish raw materials as alternatives to oil. But, above all, the extensive burning of fossil fuels threatens the living conditions of future generations. Climate change is a fact which we politicians must face. Broad and long-term political efforts are needed. -- Stockholm, 28 June 2006. Göran Persson, prime-minister, Commission on Oil Independence (Wikipedia).

O bloco central do betão, a preguiçosa, incompetente e corrupta burguesia de Estado, e sobretudo a nomenclatura partidário-corporativa que temos, alimentados todos pela generosidade adolescente da democracia portuguesa, levaram o país à ruína e a sociedade de volta à emigração. Por mais incrível que pareça, em vez de prendermos duas dúzias destas prejudiciais criaturas, toleramos alegremente que andem por aí exibindo sem vergonha os sinais exteriores de uma riqueza injustificável, como se fossem senadores de uma Roma debochada no fim dos seus dias. E são!

Os dados económicos miseráveis de Portugal são sobejamente conhecidos e nada têm que ver com a crise internacional, ao contrário do que arengam os vendedores governamentais e a laia de falsos jornalistas que tudo escrevem e dizem para manter o emprego. A catastrófica crise financeira internacional (1), que é sobretudo um sinal evidente da subalternização dos Estados Unidos, do Reino, da Austrália, da Nova Zelândia e da Zona Euro -- ou seja, dos países de consumidores ineficientes, pouco produtivos e sem recursos -- face aos países que produzem e/ou têm recursos, apenas veio precipitar a falência do nosso desmiolado e corrupto modelo económico.

A China por si só é responsável por 40% do recente acréscimo anual do consumo mundial de petróleo (2), pelo que depois das Olimpíadas veremos o preço do crude a subir de novo. Os países emergentes não dependem criticamente das exportações para manterem os seus elevados ritmos de crescimento, ao contrário do que alguns foram levados a crer. As suas demografias são mais do que suficientes para garantir taxas de crescimento anuais na ordem dos 6-10%. Tem pois absoluta razão Manuela Ferreira Leite quando avisa os portugueses que um Estado falido, tal como uma família falida, ou uma pessoa falida, não pode continuar a encomendar marisco como se nada se passasse. José Sócrates anda literalmente de mão estendida por esse mundo fora, mendigando liquidez: liquidez para o BCP, liquidez para a TAP (3), liquidez para o QREN!

Não o critico por isso, mas apenas por tal personagem ser cada vez menos primeiro ministro de Portugal, e cada vez mais o boneco atarantado da conspiração de ventríloquos apostados apenas em salvar-se a si próprios, afundando, se preciso for, o país. Note-se que esta conspiração promovida pelo bloco central dos interesses apenas estará ao lado de José Sócrates enquanto ele cumprir o guião histriónico que diariamente lhe põem nas mãos. No dia em que o actual primeiro ministro pensar um minuto na figura triste que anda a fazer, e der um murro na mesa em nome das aspirações socialistas que diz defender, verá como a turma cobarde que hoje move as baterias assassinas contra a sua adversária, Manuela Ferreira Leite, se voltará também contra si, sem dó nem piedade.

E no entanto, a aposta na prestidigitação política, como se a função de um primeiro ministro se pudesse confundir com a de um mero mestre de cerimónias, ou de um vendedor de produtos tecnológicos de duvidosa qualidade, vai levá-lo à derrota certa nas próximas eleições, apesar das sondagens actuais. Na apresentação do "Magalhães" -- um computador low cost da Intel, embrulhado em Portugal --, José Sócrates até imitou o Steve Jobs -- repararam? Ao que isto chegou!

As eleições de 2009 irão ser disputadas num ambiente de crise económica e instabilidade social grave ou muito grave. Quem falar verdade, sem subterfúgios, explicando claramente a causa das coisas, terá vantagem sobre quem quer que tenha andado com fantasias, não tendo por isso tomado as medidas apropriadas para mitigar os efeitos da crise. Mas tão importante como falar verdade, olhos nos olhos com os portugueses, é demonstrar coragem e firmeza na estancagem das pressões egoístas que atrofiam o país, contrapondo ao mesmo tempo uma visão para Portugal nos próximos 10 a 20 anos, sem ceder às métricas eleitorais, nem aos inúteis jogos florais em que o nosso inútil parlamento se especializou.

O que estava previsto fazer há três, cinco ou seis anos atrás viu caducar o prazo de validade, por razões óbvias:

1. Portugal tem uma dívida pública e privada insustentável que inviabiliza a possibilidade de continuar a endividar-se em pseudo Parcerias Público Privadas, de que os negócios da Ponte Vasco da Gama e autoestradas SCUT são exemplos tristemente célebres;
2. O alargamento da União Europeia veio enfraquecer a generosidade dos Fundos Comunitários, pelo que nenhuma das grandes obras públicas de que tanto se tem falado pode esperar de Bruxelas um apoio mais do que simbólico para a sua execução (não havendo, por outro lado, liquidez nos mercados financeiros para aventuras keynesianas improvisadas);
3. O petróleo barato acabou de vez;
4. A transição do paradigma energético vai ser longa, cara e dolorosa;
5. A crise financeira internacional, que afecta sobretudo o Ocidente, é uma crise profunda e duradoura (20 anos, pelo menos...), tendo por origem um longo ciclo de energia e créditos baratos, do qual resultaram várias bolhas especulativas (algumas delas ainda por rebentar) e um extraordinario endividamento de países tão influentes como os Estados Unidos, o Reino Unido, a Austrália e a Espanha;
6. O mundo está, por causa desta gravíssima situação, à beira de uma III Guerra Mundial. Se tiver juízo, evitá-la-à in extremis, por meio (proponho eu) de um Novo Tratado de Tordesilhas, através do qual o globo terrestre será dividido em duas metades com fronteiras aduaneiras claras, e a criação de zonas francas especiais como a Suiça, o Médio Oriente e os mares.
7. Finalmente, as alterações climáticas exigem acção imediata e uma mudança radical de comportamentos económicos, sociais e culturais. Ver neste desafio inadiável uma oportunidade é seguramente uma forma positiva de ver os imensos problemas pelas frente, e de mobilizar as consciências, os recursos e a acção (4).
   

---

NOTAS

1. New York Region - Governor Calls For Session On Fiscal Crisis
   By DANNY HAKIM. Published: July 30, 2008
   
   Gov. David A. Paterson of New York called on the Legislature to return next month to grapple with a budget deficit that will grow to $26.2 billion over the next three years.
   
   ... In his speech, the governor said taxes collected on 16 of the state's largest banks fell 97 percent between June 2007 and June 2008, to $5 million from $173 million. -- The New York Times.
   
   Australia faces worse crisis than America
   By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
   Last Updated: 6:39pm BST 29/07/2008
   
   The world's financial storm has swept through Australia and New Zealand this week amid mounting signs of contagion across the Pacific region.
   
   Australia now faces a worse crisis than America
   Many fear the economic party in Australia will end badly
   
   Financial shares were pummelled in Sydney on Tuesday after investor flight forced National Australia Bank (NAB) to slash a £400m bond sale by two thirds.
   
   The retreat comes days after the Melbourne lender shocked the markets by announcing a 90pc write-down on its £550m holdings of US mortgage debt, an admission that it AAA-rated securities are virtually worthless.
   
   In New Zealand, Guardian Trust said it was suspending withdrawals from its mortgage fund owing to "liquidity difficulties in the market".
   
   ... Hanover Finance - the country' third biggest operator - last week froze repayments to investors. The company said its "industry model has collapsed" as the housing market goes into a nose dive. Some 23 finance companies have gone bankrupt in New Zealand over the last year.
   
   It is now clear that the Antipodes are tipping into a serious downturn. Australia's NAB business confidence index fell to its lowest level in seventeen years in June. New Zealand's central bank began to cut interest rates last week on fears that the economy may have contracted in the second quarter, and is now entering recession. Housing starts slumped 20pc in June to the lowest since 1986. -- Telegraph.co .
   
   Merrill shocks Wall Street with $8.5bn share sale
   By Stephen Foley in New York
   Tuesday, 29 July 2008
   
   Merrill Lynch, the investment banking giant that has lost more than $40bn (£20.1bn) on its mortgage investments since the start of the credit crisis, shocked Wall Street last night with plans to raise $8.5bn in new shares.
   
   As part of a sweeping financial restructuring, the company is dumping most of its remaining holdings in risky mortgage derivatives and tapping the Singapore government for an emergency $3.4bn cash infusion.
   
   ... A portfolio of mortgage derivatives known as collateralised debt obligations (CDOs) that Merrill had valued at $11.1bn as recently as a fortnight ago, were offloaded last night for $6.7bn. Before the credit crisis struck, that portfolio had been worth $30bn. -- The Independent.
   
   Cortefiel's LBO Loans Signal European Retail Defaults
   
   If there is any doubt European shoppers are following their U.S. counterparts into a recession, look no further than retailers' debt.
   
   Chain stores, led by Madrid-based Cortefiel SA and Fat Face Ltd. in London, are the worst performers among the region's 140 billion euros ($220 billion) of leveraged-buyout loans, according to Markit Group Ltd. and Standard & Poor's data. The Spanish company's 1.4 billion euros of loans are trading at less than half of face value, the lowest for a European company that hasn't defaulted, data from Frankfurt-based Dresdner Kleinwort show. -- Bloomberg.
   
   Sovereign funds cut exposure to weak dollar
   By Henny Sender in New York
   Published: July 16 2008 22:35 | Last updated: July 16 2008 23:24
   
   Some of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds are seeking to scale back their exposure to the US dollar in a sign of global concern about the currency.
   
   One big sovereign fund in the Gulf has cut its dollar-denominated holdings from more than 80 per cent a year ago to less than 60 per cent, while China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) has been looking to strike deals with private equity firms in Europe as a part of a strategy to reduce its dollar holdings. -- Finantial Times.
   
   European Banks May Need EU90 Billion, Goldman Says
   By Alexis Xydias and Ambereen Choudhury
   
   July 4 (Bloomberg) -- European banks may need to raise as much as 90 billion euros ($141 billion) to restore their capital after the U.S. subprime mortgage collapse caused credit markets to seize up, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
   
   ... The European banks Goldman tracks have lost $900 billion of their market value since the credit crisis began last year. Anshu Jain, head of global markets at Deutsche Bank AG, said this week that that contagion is "by no means over," and Europe's banks have lagged behind the U.S. in raising money from investors.
   
   ... Goldman's analysts said in their report that "access to liquidity, capital adequacy and post-crisis profitability are the key areas of near to medium-term uncertainty" for European banks.
   
   Global financial stocks have led declines that wiped about $11 trillion from equity markets worldwide this year. Credit-related losses, surging oil prices and rising inflation have also stoked concern policy makers will have to raise borrowing costs as the global economy slows.
   
   LBO Defaults May Rise as About $500 Billion Comes Due
   By Neil Unmack
   
   July 4 (Bloomberg) -- Leveraged-buyout loan defaults may be "significantly higher" than ratings companies' estimates as about $500 billion of debt used to fund the takeovers comes due, the Bank for International Settlements said.
   
   Companies bought by private-equity firms worldwide must repay the high-risk, high-yield loans and bonds by 2010, the Basel, Switzerland-based bank said in a report today, citing Fitch Ratings data. They may find it hard to raise the cash because of a slump in demand for collateralized debt obligations that pool the loans, BIS said.
   
   
2. China's Cars, Accelerating A Global Demand for Fuel
   
   "In China, size matters," says Zhang, the 44-year-old founder of a media and graphic design company. "People want to have a car that shows off their status in society. No one wants to buy small." -- 27-07-2008, Washington Post.
   
   
3. British Airways and Iberia bow to economic and strategic necessity
   
   THERE is nothing like high oil prices, it would seem, to free a European airline from protective national sentiment. Late last year British Airways (BA) backed away from a bid it had made with four private-equity firms for Iberia, Spain's flag carrier, after Caja Madrid, a Spanish bank with government connections, bought a large defensive stake. On Tuesday July 29th, with the price of oil up 25% and BA and Iberia shares down 25% and 37% respectively, the two firms said they were in talks about an all-share merger. Both companies’ boards support the deal, as does Caja Madrid.
   
   ... In July Martin Broughton, BA's chairman, said the firm faced "perhaps the biggest crisis the aviation industry has ever known". As well as soaring fuel costs, airlines are bracing themselves for weakening consumer demand. Cost savings and revenue gains from a merger will help BA and Iberia mitigate the pain. -- Economist.
   
   Comentário: a TAP não tem condições para sobreviver à crise petrolífera, sobretudo depois da inconclusiva viagem da José Sócrates a Luanda, de onde Fernando Pinto não conseguiu, ao que parece, nem emprego! A solução da TAP passará irremediavelmente por uma fusão com outras companhias de aviação. Falhada a hipótese de promover uma companhia intercontinental de média dimensão, com um perfil estratégico claramente atlantista, i.e envolvendo países como Portugal, Angola, Cabo Verde, Brasil e Venezuela, por exemplo, parece-me que a única direcção consistente a tomar é a de bater à porta da BA e da Ibéria. O timing para uma decisão vantajosa está rapidamente a esgotar-se. Não creio que possa ir além do próximo Inverno.
   
   Ler a propósito: "A TAP e as Low Cost", de Rui Rodrigues: "A única forma de dar vantagens competitivas à TAP seria através da utilização de uma base para as Low Cost fora da Portela; caso contrário, a situação económica da transportadora nacional agravar-se-á ainda mais, pois já teve um prejuízo de 123 milhões de euros, no primeiro semestre de 2008." -- Público.
   
   
4. The case for investing in energy productivity
   McKinsey Global Institute, February 2008
   
   Unless there is a shift in world energy policies, global energy demand is set to accelerate, putting increasing strain on the world economy and the environment. Yet additional annual investments in energy productivity of $170 billion through 2020 could cut global energy demand growth by at least half--the equivalent of 64 million barrels of oil a day or almost one and a half times today's entire U.S. energy consumption.
   
   MGI research suggests that the economics of investing in energy productivity--the level of output we achieve from the energy we consume--are very attractive. With an average internal rate of return of 17 percent, such investments would generate energy savings ramping up to $900 billion annually by 2020. Energy productivity is also the most cost-effective way to reduce global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Capturing the energy productivity opportunity could deliver up to half of the abatement of global GHG required to cap the long-term concentration of GHG in the atmosphere to 450--550 parts per million--a level experts say will be necessary to prevent the mean temperature from increasing by more than two degrees centigrade. Moreover, the opportunities to boost energy productivity use existing technologies that pay for themselves and therefore free up resources for investment or consumption elsewhere.
   
   ... The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that on average, an additional $1 spent on more efficient electrical equipment, appliances, and buildings avoids more than $2 in investment in ekectricity supply. As Chevron CEO David O'Reilly recently pointed out, energy efficiency is the cheapest form of new energy we have."
   
   
   Will Soaring Transport Costs Reverse Globalization?
   By Jeff Rubin and Benjamin Tal, CIBC World Markets Inc. (PDF)
   
   While there remains a strong imperative in the world economy to arbitrage wage costs, the arbitrage will increasingly take place within the constraints imposed by soaring transport costs. Instead of finding cheap labor half-way around the world, the key will be to find the cheapest labor force within reasonable shipping distance to your market.
   
   Compare, for example, how relative transport costs have recently changed between the Pacific Rim and Mexico. If in 2000 American importers paid 90% more to ship goods from East Asia to the US east coast, today they pay 150% more, and when oil prices reach $200 per barrel, they will pay three times the amount it costs to ship the same container from Mexico. To put things in perspective, today's extra shipping cost from East Asia is the equivalent of imposing a 9% tariff on East Asian goods entering the US. And at oil prices of $200, the tariff-equivalent rate will rise to 15%.
   
   
   CREATE3S
   
   Short-sea shipping volumes are expected to increase by 50% between 2000 and 2020. Since 40% of the current fleet is older than 25 years, short-sea shipping needs a new generation of innovative ships to meet this potential market. These ships need enhanced economic, safety and ecological performance, fitting into future innovative logistic chains and providing a major role for EU shipbuilders. -- Transport Research.

OAM 400 31-07-2008 03:40