Costa concórdia II

António Costa
Foto @ José Sérgio/ Sol

Tsipras à portuguesa? A avaliar pelo andar da carruagem, é bem possível que sim!

Última hora: coligação sem governo; governo PS-Bloco-PCP a caminho

Presidente do BCE elogia Grécia 
«Muitas coisas assumiram um rumo melhor nos últimos tempos e isso deve-se ao primeiro-ministro grego, ao Governo grego e ao povo grego. Creio que é do interesse de todos que a atenção se centre a partir de agora na aplicação rápida das medidas que foram acertadas em conjunto, de acordo com os prazos previstos», disse o responsável italiano, numa entrevista a ser publicada este domingo no jornal grego Katherimini. 

— in Expresso, 10.10.2015 às 20h23 

A Alemanha está cada vez mais virada para a Eurásia e a Nova Rota da Seda sino-russa e, por outro lado, enquanto os Estados Unidos e o Reino Unido se preparam para enfraquecer ainda mais a União Europeia, Berlim não pode suportar mais, por si só, os custos de uma integração europeia atolada em dívidas, crescimento a caminho de zero e uma demografia cada vez mais envelhecida e improdutiva.

O eixo Paris-Berlim poderá ter assim os dias contados, sobretudo se Marine Le Pen continuar a progredir sob o impacto da instabilidade plantada pelos Estados Unidos no Médio Oriente, no leste da Europa e no Mediterrâneo, e as velhas esquerdas de Portugal, Espanha e Grécia conseguirem atravessar com êxito as metamorfoses ideológicas que já iniciaram. Não creio que Washington coloque quaisquer reservas à emergência de governos de esquerda nestes três países. E se assim for, o PàF e Cavaco Silva passarão rapidamente à história.

O escândalo da Volkswagen, que não por acaso rebentou nos Estados Unidos, abriu uma cratera na credibilidade alemã e começou a destapar o buraco negro do seu sistema financeiro.

Só o Deutsche Bank tem uma exposição aos contratos de derivados financeiros na ordem dos 54,7 biliões de euros (54,7x10E12), isto é, 19x o PIB da Alemanha! Para termos uma ideia ainda mais dramática do problema, basta pensar que o PIB mundial em 2014 andou pelos 68 biliões de euros.

A fraude ambiental da Volkswagen pode, pois, ter sido o cisne negro que levou o sistema financeiro global —e portanto o capitalismo como o conhecemos— a dar mais um forte sinal de que caminha rapidamente em direção ao colapso, que alguns já chamam pós-capitalismo. Para já, o que se vislumbra no horizonte mais próximo é o esgotamento da capacidade económico-financeira alemã de impor condições ao resto da União Europeia.

Nesta conjuntura, que à escala global é de agravamento das tensões entre o Oriente e Ocidente, mas sobretudo de avanço estratégico da China no Grande Jogo da Eurásia (que, como sabemos, vai de Lisboa e Vladivostok), os graus de liberdade dos países do sul da Europa, apesar das suas crises de endividamento soberano, poderão aumentar contra todas as expetativas.

É neste quadro que a renovação da esquerda se joga, e o futuro da direita que temos, também.

Para ajudar a compreender porque motivo o impensável se poderá realizar em breve, junto alguns artigos recentes que permitem perceber as mudanças rápidas que estão em curso

Central bank cavalry can no longer save the world 

LIMA (Reuters) - In 2008 central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, rode to the rescue of the global financial system. Seven years on and trillions of dollars later they no longer have the answers and may even represent a major risk for the global economy.
[…]
"Central banks have described their actions as 'buying time' for governments to finally resolve the crisis... But time is wearing on, and (bond) purchases have had their price," the report said.
[…]
Reuters calculates that central banks in those four countries alone have spent around $7 trillion in bond purchases.
The flow of easy money has inflated asset prices like stocks and housing in many countries even as they failed to stimulate economic growth. With growth estimates trending lower and easy money increasing company leverage, the specter of a debt trap is now haunting advanced economies, the Group of Thirty said. 

— in Reuters, Sat Oct 10, 2015 | 3:34 PM EDT, By David Chance

The Endgame Takes Shape: "Banning Capitalism And Bypassing Capital Markets" 

We believe that the path of least resistance would be to effectively ban capitalism and by-pass banking and capital markets altogether. We gave this policy change several names (such as “Cuba alternative”, “British Leyland”) but the essence of the new form of QE would be using central banks and public instrumentalities to directly inject “heroin into blood stream” rather than relying on system of incentives to drive investor behaviour. 

Instead of capital markets, it would be governments that would decide on capital allocation, its direction and cost (hence reference to British Leyland and policies of the 1960s). It could involve a variety of policy tools, with wholesome titles (i.e. “Giving the economy a competitive edge”, “Helping hard working American families” or indeed recent ideas from the British Labour party of “People’s QE”). Who can possibly object to helping hard working families or improving productivity? 

However as the title of our previous note suggested (“Back to the Future”), most of these policies have already been tried before (such as Britain in the 1960-70s or China over the last 15 years) and they ultimately led to lower ROE and ROIC as well as either stagflationary or deflationary outcomes. Whilst the proponents of new attempts of steering capital could argue that we have learned from the lessons of the past and economists would start debating “multiplier effects” and “private-public partnerships”, the essence of these policies remain the same (i.e. forcing re-allocation of capital, outside normal capital market norms), and could include various policies, such as: 

—Central banks directly funding expansion of fiscal spending;
—Central banks and public instrumentalities funding direct investment in soft (R&D, education) and hard (i.e. infrastructure) projects; and
—Outright nationalization of various capital activities (such as mortgages, student loans, SME financing, picking industry winners etc). 

Whilst, these policies would ultimately further misallocate resources, they could initially result in a significant boost to nominal GDP and given that capital markets are now populated by highly leveraged financial instruments, the impact on various financial asset classes would be immediate and considerable. In other words, neither China nor Eurozone need to spend one dime for copper prices to potentially surge 30%+. 

Are we close to such a dramatic shift in government and CB policies? 

We maintain our view that for CBs to accept this new form of QE, we need to have two key prerequisites: 

Undisputed evidence that it is needed. The combination of a major accident in several asset classes and/or sharp global slowdown would be sufficient; and there has to be academic evidence (hopefully supported by sophisticated algebra and calculus) that there are alternatives to traditional QEs. 

At the current juncture, none of these conditions are satisfied. However, we maintain that as investors progress through 2016-17, there is a very high probability that both conditions would fall into place.

— in Zero Hedge, Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/10/2015 19:44 -0400

Why Are The IMF, The UN, The BIS And Citibank All Warning That An Economic Crisis Could Be Imminent? 

— in The Economic Collapse, By Michael Snyder, on October 8th, 2015

The Final Crescendo Of Cognitive DollarDissonance And The Remonetisation Of Gold 

There is good reason to believe that what is already underway is going to be more severe than 2008-09. This time around, interest rates are already at zero, or outright negative. QE has failed. Confidence in economic officials’ general ability to restore healthy, sustainable growth has weakened considerably. Indeed, at a recent roundtable event at Chatham House I attended, multiple prominent international economists suggested that with ‘conventional QE’ having failed, the next logical arrow in the monetary policy quiver is that of direct money injections into corporations or households, in effect a Friedmanesque ‘Helicopter Drop’ of money. This conversation would not be taking place at all were the macroeconomic outlook not so poor. 

— in The Amphora Report, Vol.6, 8 October 2015