EDP e GALP, as próximas vítimas

A corrida ao ouro acelera, mas o stock é limitado!

Dívida > monetização > reflação > + dívida > deflação > depressão :(

Federal Reserve Confirms Biggest Foreign Gold Withdrawal In Over Ten Years — ZeroHedge, 29 nov 2014

Gold To Start Week With Swiss Referendum, End With U.S. Payrolls — Forbes, 28 nov 2014

OPEC Presents: QE4 and Deflation — The Automatic Earth, 28 nov 2014 (1)

Special Report: Why Italy's stay-home shoppers terrify the euro zone — Reuters, 28 nov 2014 (2)

O Referendo suíço sobre o regresso ao padrão ouro e à prudência monetária que terá lugar este domingo (30-11-2014) e cujo resultado poderá, se for um NÃO (como apontam as sondagens), sancionar de vez o monetização suicida das economias europeias e americana, em benefício dos países emergentes e sobretudo da China, assenta em três ideias:

1. o Banco Nacional Suíço deixará de vender ouro; 
2. o ouro soberano da Suíça deverá ser armazenado na Suíça; 
3. o Banco Nacional Suíço deverá manter pelo menos 20% dos seus ativos em ouro.

Entretanto, Alemanha, Holanda e outros países cuidam das suas reservas de ouro, chamando para o seu território as toneladas eventualmente guardadas em cofres outrora confiáveis.

Por fim, e ao contrário da verborreia populista da esquerda desmiolada e oportunista que temos, o que temos pela frente é a continuação do declínio económico e social e mais défice.

A queda de preços, nomeadamente da energia, com impacto positivo no turismo, a par da ilusão de abrandamento da crise, são alívios psicológicos temporários. Só mesmo o QREN 2014-2020 e o EQE (European Quantitative Easing) prometido por Draghi poderão lançar uma bóia de salvação ao governo em funções, no que resta deste ano e no quadriénio 2015-2019, independentemente de quem governar.

A crise intestina no PS e no resto da 'esquerda', ao contrário do que alguns querem crer, são péssimos argumentos a favor de António Costa e do sonhado regresso da 'esquerda' ao governo em 2015. A menos que a nossa incompetente, insensível e oportunista casta partidária acorde e perceba de uma vez por todas que terá que acelerar o seu pensamento político, para perceber a gravidade da situação em que nos encontramos, e agir de acordo com a excecionalidade que a situação exige, o que aí vem será bem pior do que o que já conhecemos e estamos a sofrer na carne.

Mas como podemos estar enganados, fechamos com uma nota de boa disposição ;)

Se o petróleo acabar, nomeadamente porque abaixo de 50 dólares o barril não haverá forma de ganhar dinheiro com a sua exploração, cada vez mais dispendiosa, a solução é esta: regressar aos computadores movidos a água!

NOTAS

1. OPEC Presents: QE4 and Deflation — The Automatic Earth, 28 nov 2014
   
   Thinking plummeting oil prices are good for the economy is a mistake. They instead, as I said only yesterday in The Price Of Oil Exposes The True State Of The Economy, point out how bad the global economy is doing. QE has been able to inflate stock prices way beyond anything remotely looking fundamental, but energy prices have now deflated instead of stocks. Something had to give at some point. Turns out, central banks weren’t able to inflate oil prices on top of everything else. Stocks and bonds are much easier to artificially inflate than commodities are.
   
   The Fed and ECB and BOJ and PBoC may of course yet try to invest in oil, they’re easily crazy enough to try, but it will be too late even if they did. In that sense, one might argue that OPEC – or rather Saudi Arabia – has gifted us QE4, but the blessings of the ‘low oil price stimulus’ will of necessity be both mixed and short-lived. Because while the lower prices may free some money for consumers, not nearly all of the freed up ‘spending space’ will end up actually being spent. So in the end that’s a net loss as far as spending goes.
   
   The ‘OPEC Q4′ may also keep some companies from going belly up for a while longer due to falling energy costs, but the flipside is many other companies will go bust because of the lower prices, first among them energy industry firms.
   
   [...]
   
   You can’t force people to spend, not if you’re a government, not if you’re a central bank. And if you try regardless, chances are you wind up scaring people into even less spending. That’s the perfect picture of Japan right there. There’s no such thing as central bank omnipotence, and this is where that shows maybe more than anywhere else. And if you can’t force people to spend, you can’t create growth either, so that myth is thrown out with the same bathwater in one fell swoop.
   
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2. Special Report: Why Italy's stay-home shoppers terrify the euro zone — Reuters, 28 nov 2014
   
   (Reuters) - "Three for the price of two" used to be the most common special offer in Giorgio Santambrogio's supermarket chains. It has barely been used this year. The reason explains why efforts to resuscitate Italy's moribund economy are failing.
   
   "People aren't stocking up because they know prices will be lower in a month's time," says Santambrogio, chief executive of Vege, a Milan-based association covering 1,500 supermarkets and specialist stores. "Shoppers are demanding steeper and steeper discounts."
   
   Italy is stuck in a rut of diminishing expectations. Numbed by years of wage freezes, and skeptical the government can improve their economic fortunes, Italians are hoarding what money they have and cutting back on basic purchases, from detergent to windows.
   
   Weak demand has led companies to lower prices in the hope of luring people back into shops. This summer, consumer prices in Italy fell on a year-on-year basis for the first time in a half-century, and they have barely picked up since. Falling prices eat into company profits and lead to pay cuts and job losses, further depressing demand. The result: Italy is being sucked into a deflationary spiral similar to the one that has afflicted Japan's economy for much of the past two decades.
   
   Read more