A Alemanha quer reforçar o controlo do processo de reformas na Zona Euro e defende que as recomendações da Comissão Europeia sejam vinculativas e que os países que não as cumprem num determinado prazo sejam penalizados com cortes de fundos.
A proposta consta de um documento subscrito pelos ministros alemães das Finanças, Wolfgang Schäuble, e da Economia, Sigmar Gabriel, publicada este domingo, 2 de Novembro, pela revista Der Spiegel.
Segundo a publicação, o Governo alemão entregou a proposta em finais de Outubro à Comissão Europeia, ao presidente do Eurogrupo e à presidência rotativa da União Europeia (UE), actualmente ocupada pela Itália.
Lá se vai o sonho despesista dos populistas da 'esquerda' e do cheque em branco António Costa e seus patrões, Mário Soares, Almeida Santos e José Sócrates. A família Espírito Santo já era.
O pessoal já andava a salivar o QREN que nem Porquinhos-da-Índia. A guerra partidária de há quase um ano para cá resumia-se, aliás, a uma disputa pelo controlo, em 2015, dos famosos fundos comunitários. A receita orçamental já não pode crescer mais, apesar do fascismo fiscal em curso, e o crescimento da economia ainda menos, ou seja, sem a massa que vem de fora, do BCE, do FMI, de outros países europeus e dos emigrantes, o país voltaria a caminhar rapidamente para a bancarrota, arrastando na implosão uma parte substancial da partidocracia e do regime. Até lá, a demagogia, o populismo e o golpismo institucional tenderiam a agravar-se.
A menos que a Alemanha tome ela mesma a decisão de abandonar o euro, jamais permitirá a continuação do deboche orçamental nas corruptas partidocracias europeias, nomeadamente do sul da União Europeia. No entanto, se Berlim perdesse este braço de ferro, o resultado seria um tiro na cabeça da Europa, à semelhança daquele que a cleptocracia japonesa acaba de dar no seu sacrificado povo. A Rússia, Israel e a América agradeceriam certamente encarecidamente esfe favor da descerebrada e oportunista 'esquerda' europeia. Podemos, aliás, começar a olhar para o exemplo ucraniano como se de um espelho se tratasse.
Se a pseudo esquerda portuguesa ganhar as próximas eleições, criando expetativas infundadas e irrealizáveis, todo o sacrifício até agora feito será deitado à rua e a consequência de tamanha cegueira coletiva será um novo resgate bem mais duro do que aquele que tivemos, a par do descrédito completo da democracia populista que afundou o país. Nessa altura, se formos por aí, talvez surja então um movimento parecido com o espanhol Podemos, só que de sinal contrário!
A
agência noticiosa francesa AFP noticiou hoje que a NATO anunciou que
detetou “manobras aéreas incomuns” e de “grande escala” da Rússia no
espaço aéreo sobre o Oceano Atlântico e os mares Báltico, do Norte e
Negro, nos últimos dois dias.
Segundo a NATO, os
aparelhos russos não tinham apresentado planos de voo, não estabeleceram
qualquer contacto com as autoridades de aviação civil e não
corresponderam às comunicações, o que “representa um risco potencial
para os voos civis”.
Em comunicado, citado pela agência
noticiosa AFP, a NATO adianta que “detetou e controlou quatro grupos de
aviões militares russos a realizarem manobras militares significativas
no espaço aéreo europeu”, entre terça-feira e hoje.
No dia 24 de outubro Vladimir Putin fez uma importante comunicação em Sochi, que a imprensa europeia de serviço ignorou quase por completo. No dia 28 de outubro uma missão espacial destinada à estação orbital
internacional explode 11s depois de o foguetão descolar de uma torre de lançamento da NASA. No dia 29 a Rússia testou com sucesso o seu novo míssil estratégico intercontinental Bulava (alcance: 10 mil Km), cujo lançamento, a profundidade submarina não revelada, teve origem num submarino nuclear da classe Borey. No mesmo dia e no dia seguinte mais de uma dúzia de aeronaves de guerra russas passearam-se pelos céus atlânticos da Europa, mostrando que o poder de projeção russa existe, está bem de saúde e é capaz de colocar a Europa de gatas em menos de doze horas. Angela Merkel, e bem, desvalorizou a histeria dos comandos da NATO sobre o assunto, afirmando que se trataram de exercício militares conhecidos e legítimos por parte de um país soberano, em território seu, ou em céus internacionais.
Submarino nuclear russo K-535 Yuriy Dolgorukiy, da classe Borey
29/10/2014: lançamento do míssil intercontinental Bulava (vídeo)
Ou seja, o tempo em que os americanos punham e dispunham do planeta como coisa sua acabou. Agora, ou há costumes e leis internacionais a respeitar, e a ONU vela pelas regras estabelecidas, ou então a Rússia deixa de ter em conta a ONU e segue mais claramente a defesa dos seus interesses, não permitindo mais coboiadas diplomáticas e provocações nas imediações das suas fronteiras: Ucrânia, Bielorússia, Afeganistão, Cazaquistão, Mongólia, Mar Cáspio, Mar de Barents, Mar de Bering, Mar da Sibéria, região de contato com o Japão, etc, dispondo-se, por outro lado, a cruzar e percorrer os espaços internacionais com o mesmo à vontade que qualquer outro país, nomeadamente os Estados Unidos, o faz.
“Pardon Us For Our Country’s Existence in the Middle of Your Military Bases” – Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov’s Speech at the UN
Mapa irónico sobre a hipocrisia americana e europeia ocidental
O que se passou neste mês de outubro é um aviso sério à decadente potência imperial e aos anões europeus: a Rússia tem território e energia que cheguem, aposta na cooperação global, quer ligar Lisboa a Vladisvostoque (tal como Pequim quer uma linha férrea da China à Europa, passando por Moscovo) apostando na aproximação da União Europeia à União Económica Euroasiática, defendendo os BRICS e a SCO, mas não aceita imposições, nem mais desconsiderações arrogantes, seja de quem for. A semana que passou serviu para explicar isto mesmo a quem tem andado a dormir na forma.
NATO Tracks Large-Scale Russia Air Activity in Europe
NATO Says Russian Air Activity Poses Potential Risk to Civilian Flights in The Wall Sreet Journal
Russian military aircraft conducted aerial maneuvers around Europe this week on a scale seldom seen since the end of the Cold War, prompting NATO jets to scramble in another sign of how raw East-West relations have grown.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization said that more than two dozen Russian aircraft in four groups were intercepted and tracked on Tuesday and Wednesday, an unusually high level of activity that the alliance said could have endangered passing civilian flights.
Military jets from eight nations were scrambled to meet the Russian aircraft, which a NATO spokesman said remained in international airspace and didn’t violate NATO territory.
Putin denuncia a manha americana quando em 2002 os Estados Unidos decidiram acabar com o ABMT, para acelerar unilateralmente um sistema de defesa-ataque nuclear mais avançado —SDI—, nomeadamente usando órbitas terrestres e bases militares em terra para o lançamento de mísseis de precisão. A Rússia quer o desarmamento nuclear, mas ou há um compromisso sério nesta matéria ou o medo da destruição mútua assegurada regressará como fiel de uma nova balança do terror, cujos principais responsáveis serão os Estados Unidos e a NATO.
Vale a pena ler o discurso de Sochi, uma peça de bom senso, ao contrário da histeria securitária, do autoritarismo e do militarismo crescentes dos americanos e de uma parte dos europeus.
Discurso de Vladimir Putin, XI sessão do Clube de Valdai, Sochi, 24 outubro 2014.
Text of Vladimir Putin’s speech and a question and answer session at the final plenary meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club’s XI session in Sochi on 24 October 2014.
It was mentioned already that the club has new co-organizers this year. They include Russian non-governmental organizations, expert groups and leading universities. The idea was also raised of broadening the discussions to include not just issues related to Russia itself but also global politics and the economy.
An organization and content will bolster the club’s influence as a leading discussion and expert forum. At the same time, I hope the ‘Valdai spirit’ will remain – this free and open atmosphere and chance to express all manner of very different and frank opinions.
Let me say in this respect that I will also not let you down and will speak directly and frankly. Some of what I say might seem a bit too harsh, but if we do not speak directly and honestly about what we really think, then there is little point in even meeting in this way. It would be better in that case just to keep to diplomatic get-togethers, where no one says anything of real sense and, recalling the words of one famous diplomat, you realize that diplomats have tongues so as not to speak the truth. We get together for other reasons. We get together so as to talk frankly with each other. We need to be direct and blunt today not so as to trade barbs, but so as to attempt to get to the bottom of what is actually happening in the world, try to understand why the world is becoming less safe and more unpredictable, and why the risks are increasing everywhere around us.
Today’s discussion took place under the theme: New Rules or a Game without Rules. I think that this formula accurately describes the historic turning point we have reached today and the choice we all face. There is nothing new of course in the idea that the world is changing very fast. I know this is something you have spoken about at the discussions today. It is certainly hard not to notice the dramatic transformations in global politics and the economy, public life, and in industry, information and social technologies.
Let me ask you right now to forgive me if I end up repeating what some of the discussion’s participants have already said. It’s practically impossible to avoid. You have already held detailed discussions, but I will set out my point of view. It will coincide with other participants’ views on some points and differ on others.
As we analyze today’s situation, let us not forget history’s lessons. First of all, changes in the world order – and what we are seeing today are events on this scale – have usually been accompanied by if not global war and conflict, then by chains of intensive local-level conflicts. Second, global politics is above all about economic leadership, issues of war and peace, and the humanitarian dimension, including human rights.
The world is full of contradictions today. We need to be frank in asking each other if we have a reliable safety net in place. Sadly, there is no guarantee and no certainty that the current system of global and regional security is able to protect us from upheavals. This system has become seriously weakened, fragmented and deformed. The international and regional political, economic, and cultural cooperation organizations are also going through difficult times.
Yes, many of the mechanisms we have for ensuring the world order were created quite a long time ago now, including and above all in the period immediately following World War II. Let me stress that the solidity of the system created back then rested not only on the balance of power and the rights of the victor countries, but on the fact that this system’s ‘founding fathers’ had respect for each other, did not try to put the squeeze on others, but attempted to reach agreements.
The main thing is that this system needs to develop, and despite its various shortcomings, needs to at least be capable of keeping the world’s current problems within certain limits and regulating the intensity of the natural competition between countries.
It is my conviction that we could not take this mechanism of checks and balances that we built over the last decades, sometimes with such effort and difficulty, and simply tear it apart without building anything in its place. Otherwise we would be left with no instruments other than brute force.
What we needed to do was to carry out a rational reconstruction and adapt it the new realities in the system of international relations.
But the United States, having declared itself the winner of the Cold War, saw no need for this. Instead of establishing a new balance of power, essential for maintaining order and stability, they took steps that threw the system into sharp and deep imbalance.
The Cold War ended, but it did not end with the signing of a peace treaty with clear and transparent agreements on respecting existing rules or creating new rules and standards. This created the impression that the so-called ‘victors’ in the Cold War had decided to pressure events and reshape the world to suit their own needs and interests. If the existing system of international relations, international law and the checks and balances in place got in the way of these aims, this system was declared worthless, outdated and in need of immediate demolition. Pardon the analogy, but this is the way nouveaux riches behave when they suddenly end up with a great fortune, in this case, in the shape of world leadership and domination. Instead of managing their wealth wisely, for their own benefit too of course, I think they have committed many follies.
We have entered a period of differing interpretations and deliberate silences in world politics. International law has been forced to retreat over and over by the onslaught of legal nihilism. Objectivity and justice have been sacrificed on the altar of political expediency. Arbitrary interpretations and biased assessments have replaced legal norms. At the same time, total control of the global mass media has made it possible when desired to portray white as black and black as white.
In a situation where you had domination by one country and its allies, or its satellites rather, the search for global solutions often turned into an attempt to impose their own universal recipes. This group’s ambitions grew so big that they started presenting the policies they put together in their corridors of power as the view of the entire international community. But this is not the case.
The very notion of ‘national sovereignty’ became a relative value for most countries. In essence, what was being proposed was the formula: the greater the loyalty towards the world’s sole power centre, the greater this or that ruling regime’s legitimacy.
We will have a free discussion afterwards and I will be happy to answer your questions and would also like to use my right to ask you questions. Let someone try to disprove the arguments that I just set out during the upcoming discussion.
The measures taken against those who refuse to submit are well-known and have been tried and tested many times. They include use of force, economic and propaganda pressure, meddling in domestic affairs, and appeals to a kind of ‘supra-legal’ legitimacy when they need to justify illegal intervention in this or that conflict or toppling inconvenient regimes. Of late, we have increasing evidence too that outright blackmail has been used with regard to a number of leaders. It is not for nothing that ‘big brother’ is spending billions of dollars on keeping the whole world, including its own closest allies, under surveillance.
Let’s ask ourselves, how comfortable are we with this, how safe are we, how happy living in this world, and how fair and rational has it become? Maybe, we have no real reasons to worry, argue and ask awkward questions? Maybe the United States’ exceptional position and the way they are carrying out their leadership really is a blessing for us all, and their meddling in events all around the world is bringing peace, prosperity, progress, growth and democracy, and we should maybe just relax and enjoy it all?
Let me say that this is not the case, absolutely not the case.
A unilateral diktat and imposing one’s own models produces the opposite result. Instead of settling conflicts it leads to their escalation, instead of sovereign and stable states we see the growing spread of chaos, and instead of democracy there is support for a very dubious public ranging from open neo-fascists to Islamic radicals.
Why do they support such people? They do this because they decide to use them as instruments along the way in achieving their goals but then burn their fingers and recoil. I never cease to be amazed by the way that our partners just keep stepping on the same rake, as we say here in Russia, that is to say, make the same mistake over and over.
They once sponsored Islamic extremist movements to fight the Soviet Union. Those groups got their battle experience in Afghanistan and later gave birth to the Taliban and Al-Qaeda. The West if not supported, at least closed its eyes, and, I would say, gave information, political and financial support to international terrorists’ invasion of Russia (we have not forgotten this) and the Central Asian region’s countries. Only after horrific terrorist attacks were committed on US soil itself did the United States wake up to the common threat of terrorism. Let me remind you that we were the first country to support the American people back then, the first to react as friends and partners to the terrible tragedy of September 11.
During my conversations with American and European leaders, I always spoke of the need to fight terrorism together, as a challenge on a global scale. We cannot resign ourselves to and accept this threat, cannot cut it into separate pieces using double standards. Our partners expressed agreement, but a little time passed and we ended up back where we started. First there was the military operation in Iraq, then in Libya, which got pushed to the brink of falling apart. Why was Libya pushed into this situation? Today it is a country in danger of breaking apart and has become a training ground for terrorists.
Only the current Egyptian leadership’s determination and wisdom saved this key Arab country from chaos and having extremists run rampant. In Syria, as in the past, the United States and its allies started directly financing and arming rebels and allowing them to fill their ranks with mercenaries from various countries. Let me ask where do these rebels get their money, arms and military specialists? Where does all this come from? How did the notorious ISIL manage to become such a powerful group, essentially a real armed force?
As for financing sources, today, the money is coming not just from drugs, production of which has increased not just by a few percentage points but many-fold, since the international coalition forces have been present in Afghanistan. You are aware of this. The terrorists are getting money from selling oil too. Oil is produced in territory controlled by the terrorists, who sell it at dumping prices, produce it and transport it. But someone buys this oil, resells it, and makes a profit from it, not thinking about the fact that they are thus financing terrorists who could come sooner or later to their own soil and sow destruction in their own countries.
Where do they get new recruits? In Iraq, after Saddam Hussein was toppled, the state’s institutions, including the army, were left in ruins. We said back then, be very, very careful. You are driving people out into the street, and what will they do there? Don’t forget (rightfully or not) that they were in the leadership of a large regional power, and what are you now turning them into?
What was the result? Tens of thousands of soldiers, officers and former Baath Party activists were turned out into the streets and today have joined the rebels’ ranks. Perhaps this is what explains why the Islamic State group has turned out so effective? In military terms, it is acting very effectively and has some very professional people. Russia warned repeatedly about the dangers of unilateral military actions, intervening in sovereign states’ affairs, and flirting with extremists and radicals. We insisted on having the groups fighting the central Syrian government, above all the Islamic State, included on the lists of terrorist organizations. But did we see any results? We appealed in vain.
We sometimes get the impression that our colleagues and friends are constantly fighting the consequences of their own policies, throw all their effort into addressing the risks they themselves have created, and pay an ever-greater price.
Colleagues, this period of unipolar domination has convincingly demonstrated that having only one power centre does not make global processes more manageable. On the contrary, this kind of unstable construction has shown its inability to fight the real threats such as regional conflicts, terrorism, drug trafficking, religious fanaticism, chauvinism and neo-Nazism. At the same time, it has opened the road wide for inflated national pride, manipulating public opinion and letting the strong bully and suppress the weak.
Essentially, the unipolar world is simply a means of justifying dictatorship over people and countries. The unipolar world turned out too uncomfortable, heavy and unmanageable a burden even for the self-proclaimed leader. Comments along this line were made here just before and I fully agree with this. This is why we see attempts at this new historic stage to recreate a semblance of a quasi-bipolar world as a convenient model for perpetuating American leadership. It does not matter who takes the place of the centre of evil in American propaganda, the USSR’s old place as the main adversary. It could be Iran, as a country seeking to acquire nuclear technology, China, as the world’s biggest economy, or Russia, as a nuclear superpower.
Today, we are seeing new efforts to fragment the world, draw new dividing lines, put together coalitions not built for something but directed against someone, anyone, create the image of an enemy as was the case during the Cold War years, and obtain the right to this leadership, or diktat if you wish. The situation was presented this way during the Cold War. We all understand this and know this. The United States always told its allies: “We have a common enemy, a terrible foe, the centre of evil, and we are defending you, our allies, from this foe, and so we have the right to order you around, force you to sacrifice your political and economic interests and pay your share of the costs for this collective defense, but we will be the ones in charge of it all of course.” In short, we see today attempts in a new and changing world to reproduce the familiar models of global management, and all this so as to guarantee their [the US’] exceptional position and reap political and economic dividends.
But these attempts are increasingly divorced from reality and are in contradiction with the world’s diversity. Steps of this kind inevitably create confrontation and countermeasures and have the opposite effect to the hoped-for goals. We see what happens when politics rashly starts meddling in the economy and the logic of rational decisions gives way to the logic of confrontation that only hurt one’s own economic positions and interests, including national business interests.
Joint economic projects and mutual investment objectively bring countries closer together and help to smooth out current problems in relations between states. But today, the global business community faces unprecedented pressure from Western governments. What business, economic expediency and pragmatism can we speak of when we hear slogans such as “the homeland is in danger”, “the free world is under threat”, and “democracy is in jeopardy”? And so everyone needs to mobilize. That is what a real mobilization policy looks like.
Sanctions are already undermining the foundations of world trade, the WTO rules and the principle of inviolability of private property. They are dealing a blow to liberal model of globalization based on markets, freedom and competition, which, let me note, is a model that has primarily benefited precisely the Western countries. And now they risk losing trust as the leaders of globalization. We have to ask ourselves, why was this necessary? After all, the United States’ prosperity rests in large part on the trust of investors and foreign holders of dollars and US securities. This trust is clearly being undermined and signs of disappointment in the fruits of globalization are visible now in many countries. The well-known Cyprus precedent and the politically motivated sanctions have only strengthened the trend towards seeking to bolster economic and financial sovereignty and countries’ or their regional groups’ desire to find ways of protecting themselves from the risks of outside pressure. We already see that more and more countries are looking for ways to become less dependent on the dollar and are setting up alternative financial and payments systems and reserve currencies. I think that our American friends are quite simply cutting the branch they are sitting on. You cannot mix politics and the economy, but this is what is happening now. I have always thought and still think today that politically motivated sanctions were a mistake that will harm everyone, but I am sure that we will come back to this subject later.
We know how these decisions were taken and who was applying the pressure. But let me stress that Russia is not going to get all worked up, get offended or come begging at anyone’s door. Russia is a self-sufficient country. We will work within the foreign economic environment that has taken shape, develop domestic production and technology and act more decisively to carry out transformation. Pressure from outside, as has been the case on past occasions, will only consolidate our society, keep us alert and make us concentrate on our main development goals.
Of course the sanctions are a hindrance. They are trying to hurt us through these sanctions, block our development and push us into political, economic and cultural isolation, force us into backwardness in other words. But let me say yet again that the world is a very different place today. We have no intention of shutting ourselves off from anyone and choosing some kind of closed development road, trying to live in autarky. We are always open to dialogue, including on normalizing our economic and political relations. We are counting here on the pragmatic approach and position of business communities in the leading countries.
Some are saying today that Russia is supposedly turning its back on Europe – such words were probably spoken already here too during the discussions – and is looking for new business partners, above all in Asia. Let me say that this is absolutely not the case. Our active policy in the Asian-Pacific region began not just yesterday and not in response to sanctions, but is a policy that we have been following for a good many years now. Like many other countries, including Western countries, we saw that Asia is playing an ever greater role in the world, in the economy and in politics, and there is simply no way we can afford to overlook these developments.
Let me say again that everyone is doing this, and we will do so to, all the more so as a large part of our country is geographically in Asia. Why should we not make use of our competitive advantages in this area? It would be extremely shortsighted not to do so.
Developing economic ties with these countries and carrying out joint integration projects also creates big incentives for our domestic development. Today’s demographic, economic and cultural trends all suggest that dependence on a sole superpower will objectively decrease. This is something that European and American experts have been talking and writing about too.
Perhaps developments in global politics will mirror the developments we are seeing in the global economy, namely, intensive competition for specific niches and frequent change of leaders in specific areas. This is entirely possible.
There is no doubt that humanitarian factors such as education, science, healthcare and culture are playing a greater role in global competition. This also has a big impact on international relations, including because this ‘soft power’ resource will depend to a great extent on real achievements in developing human capital rather than on sophisticated propaganda tricks.
At the same time, the formation of a so-called polycentric world (I would also like to draw attention to this, colleagues) in and of itself does not improve stability; in fact, it is more likely to be the opposite. The goal of reaching global equilibrium is turning into a fairly difficult puzzle, an equation with many unknowns. So, what is in store for us if we choose not to live by the rules – even if they may be strict and inconvenient – but rather live without any rules at all? And that scenario is entirely possible; we cannot rule it out, given the tensions in the global situation. Many predictions can already be made, taking into account current trends, and unfortunately, they are not optimistic. If we do not create a clear system of mutual commitments and agreements, if we do not build the mechanisms for managing and resolving crisis situations, the symptoms of global anarchy will inevitably grow.
Today, we already see a sharp increase in the likelihood of a whole set of violent conflicts with either direct or indirect participation by the world’s major powers. And the risk factors include not just traditional multinational conflicts, but also the internal instability in separate states, especially when we talk about nations located at the intersections of major states’ geopolitical interests, or on the border of cultural, historical, and economic civilizational continents.
Ukraine, which I’m sure was discussed at length and which we will discuss some more, is one of the example of such sorts of conflicts that affect international power balance, and I think it will certainly not be the last. From here emanates the next real threat of destroying the current system of arms control agreements. And this dangerous process was launched by the United States of America when it unilaterally withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002, and then set about and continues today to actively pursue the creation of its global missile defense system.
Colleagues, friends, I want to point out that we did not start this. Once again, we are sliding into the times when, instead of the balance of interests and mutual guarantees, it is fear and the balance of mutual destruction that prevent nations from engaging in direct conflict. In absence of legal and political instruments, arms are once again becoming the focal point of the global agenda; they are used wherever and however, without any UN Security Council sanctions. And if the Security Council refuses to produce such decisions, then it is immediately declared to be an outdated and ineffective instrument.
Many states do not see any other ways of ensuring their sovereignty but to obtain their own bombs. This is extremely dangerous. We insist on continuing talks; we are not only in favor of talks, but insist on continuing talks to reduce nuclear arsenals. The less nuclear weapons we have in the world, the better. And we are ready for the most serious, concrete discussions on nuclear disarmament – but only serious discussions without any double standards.
What do I mean? Today, many types of high-precision weaponry are already close to mass-destruction weapons in terms of their capabilities, and in the event of full renunciation of nuclear weapons or radical reduction of nuclear potential, nations that are leaders in creating and producing high-precision systems will have a clear military advantage. Strategic parity will be disrupted, and this is likely to bring destabilization. The use of a so-called first global pre-emptive strike may become tempting. In short, the risks do not decrease, but intensify.
The next obvious threat is the further escalation of ethnic, religious, and social conflicts. Such conflicts are dangerous not only as such, but also because they create zones of anarchy, lawlessness, and chaos around them, places that are comfortable for terrorists and criminals, where piracy, human trafficking, and drug trafficking flourish.
Incidentally, at the time, our colleagues tried to somehow manage these processes, use regional conflicts and design ‘color revolutions’ to suit their interests, but the genie escaped the bottle. It looks like the controlled chaos theory fathers themselves do not know what to do with it; there is disarray in their ranks.
We closely follow the discussions by both the ruling elite and the expert community. It is enough to look at the headlines of the Western press over the last year. The same people are called fighters for democracy, and then Islamists; first they write about revolutions and then call them riots and upheavals. The result is obvious: the further expansion of global chaos.
Colleagues, given the global situation, it is time to start agreeing on fundamental things. This is incredibly important and necessary; this is much better than going back to our own corners. The more we all face common problems, the more we find ourselves in the same boat, so to speak. And the logical way out is in cooperation between nations, societies, in finding collective answers to increasing challenges, and in joint risk management. Granted, some of our partners, for some reason, remember this only when it suits their interests.
Practical experience shows that joint answers to challenges are not always a panacea; and we need to understand this. Moreover, in most cases, they are hard to reach; it is not easy to overcome the differences in national interests, the subjectivity of different approaches, particularly when it comes to nations with different cultural and historical traditions. But nevertheless, we have examples when, having common goals and acting based on the same criteria, together we achieved real success.
Let me remind you about solving the problem of chemical weapons in Syria, and the substantive dialogue on the Iranian nuclear program, as well as our work on North Korean issues, which also has some positive results. Why can’t we use this experience in the future to solve local and global challenges? What could be the legal, political, and economic basis for a new world order that would allow for stability and security, while encouraging healthy competition, not allowing the formation of new monopolies that hinder development? It is unlikely that someone could provide absolutely exhaustive, ready-made solutions right now. We will need extensive work with participation by a wide range of governments, global businesses, civil society, and such expert platforms as ours.
However, it is obvious that success and real results are only possible if key participants in international affairs can agree on harmonizing basic interests, on reasonable self-restraint, and set the example of positive and responsible leadership. We must clearly identify where unilateral actions end and we need to apply multilateral mechanisms, and as part of improving the effectiveness of international law, we must resolve the dilemma between the actions by international community to ensure security and human rights and the principle of national sovereignty and non-interference in the internal affairs of any state.
Those very collisions increasingly lead to arbitrary external interference in complex internal processes, and time and again, they provoke dangerous conflicts between leading global players. The issue of maintaining sovereignty becomes almost paramount in maintaining and strengthening global stability.
Clearly, discussing the criteria for the use of external force is extremely difficult; it is practically impossible to separate it from the interests of particular nations. However, it is far more dangerous when there are no agreements that are clear to everyone, when no clear conditions are set for necessary and legal interference.
I will add that international relations must be based on international law, which itself should rest on moral principles such as justice, equality and truth. Perhaps most important is respect for one’s partners and their interests. This is an obvious formula, but simply following it could radically change the global situation.
I am certain that if there is a will, we can restore the effectiveness of the international and regional institutions system. We do not even need to build anything anew, from the scratch; this is not a “greenfield,” especially since the institutions created after World War II are quite universal and can be given modern substance, adequate to manage the current situation.
This is true of improving the work of the UN, whose central role is irreplaceable, as well as the OSCE, which, over the course of 40 years, has proven to be a necessary mechanism for ensuring security and cooperation in the Euro-Atlantic region. I must say that even now, in trying to resolve the crisis in southeast Ukraine, the OSCE is playing a very positive role.
In light of the fundamental changes in the international environment, the increase in uncontrollability and various threats, we need a new global consensus of responsible forces. It’s not about some local deals or a division of spheres of influence in the spirit of classic diplomacy, or somebody’s complete global domination. I think that we need a new version of interdependence. We should not be afraid of it. On the contrary, this is a good instrument for harmonizing positions.
This is particularly relevant given the strengthening and growth of certain regions on the planet, which process objectively requires institutionalization of such new poles, creating powerful regional organizations and developing rules for their interaction. Cooperation between these centers would seriously add to the stability of global security, policy and economy. But in order to establish such a dialogue, we need to proceed from the assumption that all regional centers and integration projects forming around them need to have equal rights to development, so that they can complement each other and nobody can force them into conflict or opposition artificially. Such destructive actions would break down ties between states, and the states themselves would be subjected to extreme hardship, or perhaps even total destruction.
I would like to remind you of the last year’s events. We have told our American and European partners that hasty backstage decisions, for example, on Ukraine’s association with the EU, are fraught with serious risks to the economy. We didn’t even say anything about politics; we spoke only about the economy, saying that such steps, made without any prior arrangements, touch on the interests of many other nations, including Russia as Ukraine’s main trade partner, and that a wide discussion of the issues is necessary. Incidentally, in this regard, I will remind you that, for example, the talks on Russia’s accession to the WTO lasted 19 years. This was very difficult work, and a certain consensus was reached.
Why am I bringing this up? Because in implementing Ukraine’s association project, our partners would come to us with their goods and services through the back gate, so to speak, and we did not agree to this, nobody asked us about this. We had discussions on all topics related to Ukraine’s association with the EU, persistent discussions, but I want to stress that this was done in an entirely civilized manner, indicating possible problems, showing the obvious reasoning and arguments. Nobody wanted to listen to us and nobody wanted to talk. They simply told us: this is none of your business, point, end of discussion. Instead of a comprehensive but – I stress – civilized dialogue, it all came down to a government overthrow; they plunged the country into chaos, into economic and social collapse, into a civil war with enormous casualties.
Why? When I ask my colleagues why, they no longer have an answer; nobody says anything. That’s it. Everyone’s at a loss, saying it just turned out that way. Those actions should not have been encouraged – it wouldn’t have worked. After all (I already spoke about this), former Ukrainian President Yanukovych signed everything, agreed with everything. Why do it? What was the point? What is this, a civilized way of solving problems? Apparently, those who constantly throw together new ‘color revolutions’ consider themselves ‘brilliant artists’ and simply cannot stop.
I am certain that the work of integrated associations, the cooperation of regional structures, should be built on a transparent, clear basis; the Eurasian Economic Union’s formation process is a good example of such transparency. The states that are parties to this project informed their partners of their plans in advance, specifying the parameters of our association, the principles of its work, which fully correspond with the World Trade Organization rules.
I will add that we would also have welcomed the start of a concrete dialogue between the Eurasian and European Union. Incidentally, they have almost completely refused us this as well, and it is also unclear why – what is so scary about it?
And, of course, with such joint work, we would think that we need to engage in dialogue (I spoke about this many times and heard agreement from many of our western partners, at least in Europe) on the need to create a common space for economic and humanitarian cooperation stretching all the way from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean.
Colleagues, Russia made its choice. Our priorities are further improving our democratic and open economy institutions, accelerated internal development, taking into account all the positive modern trends in the world, and consolidating society based on traditional values and patriotism.
We have an integration-oriented, positive, peaceful agenda; we are working actively with our colleagues in the Eurasian Economic Union, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS and other partners. This agenda is aimed at developing ties between governments, not dissociating. We are not planning to cobble together any blocs or get involved in an exchange of blows.
The allegations and statements that Russia is trying to establish some sort of empire, encroaching on the sovereignty of its neighbors, are groundless. Russia does not need any kind of special, exclusive place in the world – I want to emphasize this. While respecting the interests of others, we simply want for our own interests to be taken into account and for our position to be respected.
We are well aware that the world has entered an era of changes and global transformations, when we all need a particular degree of caution, the ability to avoid thoughtless steps. In the years after the Cold War, participants in global politics lost these qualities somewhat. Now, we need to remember them. Otherwise, hopes for a peaceful, stable development will be a dangerous illusion, while today’s turmoil will simply serve as a prelude to the collapse of world order.
Yes, of course, I have already said that building a more stable world order is a difficult task. We are talking about long and hard work. We were able to develop rules for interaction after World War II, and we were able to reach an agreement in Helsinki in the 1970s. Our common duty is to resolve this fundamental challenge at this new stage of development.
Em Portugal a corrupção não é menor, mas continua protegida pela partidocracia
Chegámos aos picos da corrupção e do desemprego
A corrupção em Espanha está onde estão os bancos, a especulação imobiliária e o poder. Em Portugal é a mesma coisa e a pandemia tem proporcionalmente a mesma dimensão, mas continua muito protegida pela partidocracia populista e pelo neo-corporativismo empresarial e sindical que temos. Já alguém investigou o comportamento do líder da UGT depois dos acordos secretos que terão sido negociados em volta do colapso do BES e do fundo de pensões dos seus trabalhadores? É uma suposição, claro, mas ainda não ví nenhum opinocrata perguntar-se sobre este estranho caso.
Só empurrada pelos credores externos e pelos que foram vigarizados no estrangeiro é que apachorrenta Justiça que temos lá vai fazendo o seu trabalho. Quando lhe mexem na travessa dos privilégios exalta-se e faz umas horas extraordinárias, vai ao baú dos casos que está farta de conhecer e puxa um fio para assustar a malta. De resto, o que vemos é uma conspiração permanente para proteger os cleptocratas e vigaristas lusitanos, por mais dor que semelhante crime, cometido descaradamente pelos bonzos deste regime falido e em fim de vida (na realidade é uma plutocracia parlamentar), cause aos portugueses que empobrecem e se veem despedidos e sem emprego. A corrupção é um mal antigo, todos o sabemos. Mas o problema recente é que se transformou numa pandemia mundial, muito pior que o Ébola!
Numa economia global assimétrica onde as grandes regiões demográficas (China, Índia, Indonésia, Brasil, Paquistão, Nigéria, Bangladesh, Rússia, México, Filipinas, Vietname, etc.) ganham finalmente acesso a uma parte crescente do riqueza mundial, mas na qual ao mesmo tempo declina a era da energia barata oriunda do carvão, do petróleo e do gás natural (1), e se inicia a transição para um mundo baseado em energias renováveis não poluentes, necessariamente mas caras (pelo menos na sua fase inicial), e por causa deste declínio declinam as sociedades perdulárias do consumo conspícuo, do emprego burocrático não produtivo e da ineficiência energética, numa economia global que caminha nesta direção, em suma, a mudança de paradigma conduziu a uma exacerbação dos fenómenos de corrupção por efeito de um fenómeno a que poderíamos chamar encher a despensa. A maioria das pessoas começou a gastar menos e melhor, a poupar mais, ao mesmo tempo que uma certa minoria desatou a roubar o que pode, sem medo das consequêcias. Banqueiros, rendeiros, devoristas e os partidocratas estão obviamente na linha da frente desta deriva exacerbada da corrupção. Nem todos são corruptos, mas os que são lançam a vergonha sobre os demais.
Para que a tempestade fosse perfeita, e foi, só faltaria mesmo que os países começassem a quebrar por causa de uma, duas ou três décadas de sobreendividamento sucessivo, público e privado, com o qual se foi disfarçando e adiando as decisões de transição necessáriasà evolução estrutural dos paradigmas energético e económico mundiais. Foi o que aconteceu. A tempestade começou nos Estados Unidos, em meados de 2006, com a crise hipotecártia conhecida porsubprime, e em setembro de 2008 com o colapso do Lehman Brothers, passou depois, em outubro de 2007, à Islândia, em 2008, à Irlanda, em 2010 à Grécia, em 2011, a Portugal, em 2012, a Espanha, em 2013, a Chipre, e no mesmo ano colapsa o mais antigo banco do mundo, Monte dei Paschi, em Itália. Em 2014 a crise financeira continua a avançar com toda a sua força destruidora sobre a França e o Reino Unido. As consequências são sempre as mesmas:crise aguda do sistema financeiro, colapso orçamental dos governos, falências de milhares de empresas, milhões de desempregados, assalto fiscal seletivo aos rendimentos do capital e do trabalho, ao estado social, e às poupanças supostamente seguras: depósitos (cujas condições de resgate e taxas de rentabilidade são alteradas), fundos públicos de pensões, alguns dos quais foram obrigados a 'investir' em dívida soberana de países na pré-bancarrota, como foi o caso em Portugal, e até os fundos privados de pensões, parte dos quais foram literalmente sugados pelos buracos negros dos derivados financeiros OTC (especulativos).
A situação começou a inverter-se lentamente entre 2009 e 2010, mas só no biénio de 2013-2014 os sinais começaram francamente a animar na direção certa. Mas a que preço?E por quanto tempo? Haverá transição, ou uma crise financeira incontrolável em França, ou na Itália, poderá ainda fazer descarrilar de novo a União Europeia?
O desemprego começou a recuar em 2013, ao contrário do que a nossa esquerda oportunista mente em uníssono, sem qualquer preocupação de cair no ridículo. Sabe-se agora que esta esquerda oportunista e populista tudo fez para derrubar na rua, recorrendo a manobras golpistas descaradas, o governo de maioria em funções. Mário Soares até falou num dead line: setembro de 2014!
Percebe-se, depois do que aconteceu ao BES, porquê!
Era preciso defender o guarda-livros Ricardo e era fundamental impedir que Passos Coelho e Paulo Portas colhessem os frutos da viragem, por mais ténue que fosse. Paulo Portas, numa intervenção acutilante sobre o Orçamento de 2015, serviu a réplica ao golspismo da esquerda mostrando até que ponto esta pseudo esquerda, além de oportunista e oca de ideias, se presta a exercícios de pendor claramente anti-democrático e populista.
Basta olhar para os gráficos oficiais da evolução do emprego e do desemprego,em Portugal, Espanha e União Europeia, para se perceber que a falsa esquerda mente sem rebuço, mas também que o mérito da inversão de tendência é algo que extravasa a mera competência dos governos em funções, seja onde for. O desemprego deixou de cair, e a criação de novos empregos começa a aparecer nas estatísticas, por causas objetivas e estruturais, mas também porque a crise financeira abriu caminho ao fortalecimento da governação política, orçamental e financeira da União, com reforço de Bruxelas (Conselho Europeu e Comissão Europeia), Frankfurt (BCE) e Estrasburgo (Parlamento Europeu).
Os de cá, ou pelo menos uma parte deles, de que a desintegração do BES é o principal paradigma, já não mandam nada.Ou, pelo menos, já não podem fazer as patifarias que fizeram até atirarem o país para o lixo. Ainda bem!
Os gráficos desmentem a esquerda populista que temos
Também em Espanha o desemprego parou de aumentar
A União Europeia é mais sustentável do que dizem os eurocéticos
A taxa de desemprego tem vindo a cair desde finais de 2013
A criação de novos empregos é visível desde 2012
Notas
O mito do fracking não passa disto mesmo, de um mito e de um embuste deletério, apesar do que irresponsavelmente diz, sem provar o que diz, o Prof. António Costa e Silva, da Partex. Consultar a este propósito vários artigos publicados em Collapse Link, também sobre o problema mais geral do Pico do Petróleo.
As democracias estão a perder a corrida para os gangsters da globalização
Quando os nossos batráquios parlamentares, os nossos governantes e os nossos jornalistas palram de deflação, não sabem obviamente o que dizem, mas tal como as ovelhas em rebanho, quando uma começa a berrar, as outras berram em uníssono!
Já escrevemos várias vezes sobre o mito da deflação e do motivo que leva banksters, cleptocratas, governos e a partidocracia a propagarem o pânico em volta da deflação. Basicamente querem reestruturar (i.e. anular parcialmente) as dívidas soberanas e as imparidades gigantescas do setor bancário e corporativo, à custa, por um lado, da destruição das taxas de juro e da deflação dos rendimentos do trabalho e da poupança e, por outro, da inflação dos preços de uma vasta gama de bens essenciais, como a energia, transportes, bens alimentares, saúde e educação.
Só há deflação de salários. Quase tudo o resto está sob o império da inflação e da reflação.
Vale a pena ler mais esta desmontagem do embuste da deflação.
We're being hit with a double-whammy: Wages are under deflationary pressure, and almost everything else is exposed to inflationary pressure.
Now that prices for commodities such as oil and grain are set on the global market, local surpluses don't push prices down. If North America has record harvests of grain, on a national basis we'd expect prices to fall as local supply exceeds local demand.
But since grain is tradable, i.e. it can be shipped to other markets where demand and thus prices are much higher, the price in North America reflects supply and demand everywhere on the planet, not just in North America.
If we put ourselves in the shoes of a farmer or grain wholesaler, this is a boon: why sell your product for 1X locally, when it fetches 2X in other countries? You'd be crazy not to put it on a boat and get double the price elsewhere.
As the share of the economy exposed to digitization increases, so does the share of work that can be done anywhere on the planet. When work is digitized, it is effectively commoditized, meaning that it no longer matters who performs the work or where they live.
If people in countries with low wages can perform the work, why on Earth would you pay double to have high-wage people do the work? It makes no sense. Taking advantage of the differences in local pay scales is called labor arbitrage, as the employer is trading on (i.e. arbitraging) two sets of prices.
It's not just labor that can be arbitraged: currency, interest rates, risk, environmental regulations, commodities--huge swaths of the global economy can be arbitraged.
The basic idea of the global carry trade is to borrow money cheaply in a currency that's weakening and use the money to buy low-risk, high-yield assets in currencies that are gaining in relative value. It's a slam dunk arbitrage: not only does the trader earn an essentially free return (borrowing yen at 1%, for example, converting the yen to dollars and buying Treasury bonds paying 3%), but there is a bonus yield on the dollar strengthening against the yen: a two-fer return.
Global labor is in over-supply--one reason why wages in the U.S. have been declining in real terms, i.e. when inflation is factored in. The better description is purchasing power: how much can your paycheck buy?
Courtesy of David Stockman, here is a chart of inflation (i.e. loss of purchasing power) since 2000:
Alexandres Soares dos Santos/ Grupo Jerónimo Martins
O grupo de distribuição registou, entre Janeiro e Setembro, uma queda dos resultados, fruto da pressão de uma "maior deflação alimentar". As vendas melhoraram em Portugal e na Polónia, mas as margens voltaram a cair.
A companhia Jerónimo Martins consolidou resultados líquidos, após interesses minoritários, de 237,1 milhões de euros entre Janeiro e Setembro deste ano, uma queda de 15,5% face a igual período do ano passado, anunciou o grupo esta quarta-feira, após o fecho da bolsa. O resultado líquido por acção passou de 0,45 euros para 0,38 euros.
Em vez de atacar a China (o resultado está à vista!) o senhor Pingo Doce
deveria olhar para os seus concorrentes americanos que, graças ao
entusiasmo do ex-comunista Vital Moreira e dos 'socialistas' em geral,
deverão desembarcar em Portugal assim que a famosa Transatlantic Trade
and Investment Partnership (TTIP) seja aprovada. A saber: Walmart,
Kroger, Albertson, Safeway, Publix, Shoprite,TARGET, etc.
Ao contrário
dos comes e bebes, onde a cozinha portuguesa e as nossas tascas
conseguiram até agora conter a infestação do 'junk food' americano
—McDonald's, KFC, Burger King, Pizza Hut, Subway, Dominos's Pizza,
Starbucks, Wendy's etc.— a fileira dos supermercados com produtos
baratos e coloridos será muito mais difícil de travar.
Com tanta loja
por alugar vai ser uma verdadeira guerra comercial. Com uma diferença:
os americanos têm o papel higiénico verde que quiserem, enquanto os
tugas vão ao banco e levam népias!
Os banksters, mais do que os povos, temem a deflação, pois esta implica a morte de centenas de bancos endividados até aos ossos e que mentem sobre os seus ativos e sobre as suas crescentes imparidades. Por outro lado, sem inflação, ou com 'reflações' que nada trazem de novo ao bem estar dos povos atacados pela austeridade (que é, afinal, a inflação dos pobres), as dívidas soberanas tornam-se mais difíceis de pagar, levando os governos a processos subtis mas inexoráveis de renegociação das dívidas públicas, que por sua vez obrigam a injetar literalmente galáxias de dinheiro virtual nos bancos insolventes, cuja situação, por sua vez, só poderá piorar perante a bolha de endividamento piramidal dos governos, oligopólios rentistas e fundos especulativos alavancados até às nuvens.
É disto que este pirata tem medo!
Curiosamente, Willem Buiter, perante a deflação anunciada, recomenda investimentos nas deterioradas infraestruturas, nomeadamente de transportes, da Alemanha e do Reino Unido, e estímulos ao consumo em Espanha, Grécia e —presumimos— Portugal.
Ora aqui está algo com que Pedro Passos Coelho não contava, mas que vai dar um jeitaço no ano eleitoral de 2015. O setor automóvel e o turismo tomaram, aliás, a dianteira nesta matéria, criando os seus próprios setores financeiros especializados de crédito ao consumo. Se Passos Coelho e o monarca do QREN (afastado que seja o motorista do BES colocado no AICEP) tiverem juízo, aproveitarão esta janela de oportunidade para lançarem, de uma vez por todas, as ligações ferroviárias, em bitola europeia, de Lisboa, Porto e Aveiro até Espanha/ resto da Europa, ao mesmo tempo que despacham rápida e favoravelmente a criação do terminal aéreo Low Cost do Montijo, acabam com o embuste do novo terminal de contentores no Barreiro e preparam estudos sobre a viabilidade do fecho da golada do Tejo, resolvendo assim o problema da erosão costeira da Costa da Caparica, ao mesmo tempo que projetam um futuro porto de águas profundas na Cova do Vapor-Trafaria. De caminho preparem-se para mais uns investimentos em material de vigilância e defesa costeira da nova Plataforma Continental, em aviões, barcos e manutenção adequada e atempada dos famigerados submarinos.
Pierre-Henri Thomas 29/10/2014 à 09:53 - Mis à jour à 10:22
La déflation devrait se concrétiser l'année prochaine en Europe, pronostique Willem Buiter, l'économiste en chef du groupe américain Citigroup. Pour l'éviter, la BCE devra sortir le grand jeu et les pays devront stimuler la demande, chacun à sa manière. Sans quoi, la croissance ne sera pas au rendez-vous et l'endettement sera de plus en plus lourd à porter.
[...]
Alors, la déflation est arrivée en Europe ?
Nous n'en sommes pas loin et elle est déjà là dans certains pays du Sud. Au niveau de la zone euro, elle ne se concrétisera peut-être pas au cours des prochains mois en raison de certains effets techniques ou saisonniers, mais il n'y a pas de doute. Il y aura une inflation négative au début de l'an prochain.
Y a-t-il moyen de l'éviter ?
Il y a quelques mesures apparemment simples à prendre mais difficile du point de vue politique.
Lesquelles ?
La première est un examen sérieux des banques européennes, ce qui est en train de se passer avec les stress tests. Ces tests constituent le premiers pas de l'Union bancaire, laquelle est un élément-clé, non seulement dans le contrôle des banques et du système financier mais aussi pour une bonne transmission de la politique monétaire.
Ensuite, nous avons besoin de stimuler la demande. Il y a un excès de capacité dans la zone euro. L' "output gap" (l'écart entre le PIB réel et son niveau potentiel) grandit. Oui, la baisse de l'euro et du prix des matières premières est une bonne nouvelle pour les exportateurs, mais je le répète, nous ne sommes pas loin de la déflation en Europe.
Dans ce contexte, je crois que l'Allemagne peut se permettre de réaliser un stimulus budgétaire, qui consisterait à réaliser des dépenses dans des domaines qui soutiendront la croissance à terme. Comme par exemple renforcer les infrastructures. L'Allemagne mais aussi la Belgique et le Royaume-Uni ont sous-investis dans les infrastructures pendant des années. D'autres pays n'ont pas ces besoins (l'Espagne, la Grèce,... ont énormément dépensés dans les infrastructures) et il leur faut des stimuli budgétaires "discrétionnaires", à la carte. Dans ces pays, il convient de stimuler la demande privée.
Quem nasceu primeiro, o ovo ou a galinha?
1929-1933-1939
Quebra do anel de transferências entre os EUA e a Europa > colapso financeiro da Alemanha > II Guerra Mundial monetarismo
1: criação de liquidez com garantias na economia > monetarismo 2:
criação de liquidez especulativa, sem garantias na economia > colapso
financeiro: insolvência e falência de bancos > colapso de empresas
> desemprego em massa > intervenção estatal: política de preços e
rendimentos: redução de preços, redução de salários > redutação das
taxas de juros > espiral deflacionária > monetarismo 3:
intervenção desesperada dos governos: injeção massiva de papel-dinheiro nas mãos dos
consumidores > inflação > hiperinflação > colapso geral:
fascismo> nacional-socialismo...
2007-2008-2015...
Quebra do anel de transferências entre a China, Europa e Petromonarquias e os EUA > colapso dos EUA? > III Guerra Mundial, ou Tratado de Tordesilhas 2.0?
Situação: não existe um desequilíbrio tão grande entre os EUA e a Europa, China, etc., como havia entre a América e a Europa entre o fim da I e o início da II guerra mundial > há um desequilíbrio importante entre os EUA e a China, mas incomparável ao aperto alemão depois de duas derrotas militares e até à reunificação (19014-1990) > neste momento a Europa dispõe de capacidade produtiva excedentária, mas a sua balança de pagamentos é cada vez mais positiva, havendo pois um excesso de capacidade financeira que em breve descolará da Europa em direção a outras regiões do globo > por fim, há
um novo dado decisivo: o pico do petróleo e em geral o encarecimento dos
recursos energéticos, hidrológicos, minerais e alimentares disponíveis,
com efeiros que começaram a sentir-se de modo muito claro depois de 1973, e sobretudo depois de 2005.
AGORA: a monetização das dívidas (QE e as várias réplicas europeias) desde 2008,
tem servido até agora para evitar o pior, mas a solução parece cada vez
mais esgotada... ou seja, depois dos resgates e da austeridade, vai ser
necessário acrescer a estas medidas excecionais medidas mais drásticas
de reestruturação das dívidas públicas e privadas através de mecanismos
não declarados de reestruturação, como o chamado haircut e os bail-in. Bancos e sistemas de especulação financeira —pública (bolsas) e privada (derivados OTC)— serão reestruturados com perdas crescentes, a começar nos
investidores e especuladores incautos ou simplesmente mais fracos. Os
estados demasiado grandes, burocráticos, ineficientes e corruptos terão
que encolher, com ou sem resgates, com ou sem programas cautelares, com
ou sem visitas semestrais dos credores.
É por isto tudo
que a conversa sobre a deflação é sobretudo uma manobra de distração dos
devedores insolventes. É que para estes só a inflação, a reflação
e, no limite, a hiperinflação eliminaria de vez as suas imprudentes
dívidas.
O senhor Pingo Doce deveria estudar bem este acordo antes de atacar os chineses!
A Catarina deveria dirigir a pergunta, antes de mais, ao 'socialista' Vital Moreira, que tanto entusiasmo nutre pela famosa parceria, mais conhecida por TTIP, que os americanos querem impor à Europa a toda a pressa. Já agora, que pensa o vazio Costa deste assunto? Não convoque outra comissão de sapientes economistas, por favor, porque eles ainda nem sequer ouviram falar disto!
Esta negociata obscura contém cláusulas secretas que só serão do conhecimento público 30 anos depois de assinada, se for assinado como está, aquele que parece ser um gigantesco embuste montado pelos grandes piratas da finança e da indústria americana e europeia contra as pequenas nações e contra tudo o que não sejam empresas globais. Entendeu, senhor Soares dos Santos?
Tempo, em suma, para discutir mais uma tentativa de transformar o mundo numa nova era de senhores feudais e servos da gleba. A fase atual é, como se sabe, a da destruição, pura e simples, das classes médias — com a colaboração oportunista e corrompida das elites burocráticas e partidocráticas sustentadas pelos novos senhores. Estas elites, que fazem cada vez mais parte dos 0,1% da camada mais rica das declinantes democracias ocidentais, têm que merecer o dinheiro que ganham e dão a ganhar aos clubes a que pertencem. E não estou a escrever sobre futebol!
Bruno Maçães, secretário de Estado dos Assuntos Europeus, subscreveu, com outros 13 governantes europeus, uma carta pedindo à Comissão Europeia que encare como “obrigatória” a inclusão de uma cláusula na futura Parceria Transatlântica para o Comércio e Investimento (TTIP, na sigla inglesa). Essa cláusula, como o PÚBLICO revelou na sua edição de ontem, é polémica.
Por isso, Catarina Martins, deputada do BE, enviou ao primeiro-ministro, Pedro Passos Coelho, uma pergunta: “Configura a iniciativa do secretário de Estado dos Assuntos Europeus, apoiando a inclusão de mecanismos de arbitragem jurídica fora dos tribunais europeus no âmbito do TTIP, a posição oficial do Estado português?”
O TTIP visa eliminar barreiras alfandegárias e outras, abrindo os mercados europeu e norte-americano às empresas dos dois lados do Atlântico. A cláusula que está no centro do debate é a que remete os eventuais conflitos jurídicos entre as empresas e os Estados para um mecanismo arbitral, privado, o ISDS, que significa “investor-state dispute settlement”, ou seja, arbitragem Estado-investidor.
Bruno Maçães pronunciou-se na carta e em declarações ao PÚBLICO a favor da cláusula. “Para Portugal, a questão crucial é eliminar a nossa desvantagem competitiva na área do investimento”, adiantou o secretário de Estado. “Só três Estados-membros da UE não têm qualquer acordo de protecção de investimento com os Estados Unidos. Portugal é um deles. É, por isso, uma questão de mercado interno e de criação de condições iguais para todos”, prosseguiu Bruno Maçães.
No entanto, a introdução no acordo de um mecanismo ISDS causa preocupações em vários sectores europeus. “No acordo de parceria que, eventualmente, a minha comissão venha a submeter a esta casa para aprovação, não haverá nada que limite as partes no acesso aos tribunais nacionais, ou que permita a tribunais secretos terem a última palavra nas disputas entre investidores e Estados”, prometeu Jean-Claude Juncker, na sua audição no Parlamento Europeu, como sucessor indigitado de Durão Barroso.
Plataforma Não ao TTIP reage ao artigo "Portugal: o caminho mais curto entre os EUA e a Europa" (deputada Francisca Almeida)
Expresso. 11:22 Quarta feira, 29 de outubro de 2014
A Plataforma nao-ao-ttip responde a um artigo da deputada Francisca
Almeida (PSD), publicado no blogue O Lado A do Lado B, a 19 de outubro,
no Expresso online.
Cuando descubras que eres contrario al TTIP puede ser tarde
El socialismo es republicano. Ana Barba
Publico, 24 octubre 2014
Mi frutero cree que es de derechas. Piensa que si vienen los de izquierdas, le quitarán la frutería. Abre los ojos como platos cuando le digo que soy muy de izquierdas, no da crédito, una señora que parece tan de buena familia.
La dueña de la farmacia de la esquina es de derechas. Está al borde de la quiebra, pero cree a pies juntillas que la culpa es de la herencia recibida y de los de izquierdas, que no dejan al Gobierno hacer lo que debe.
Mi amigo Pepe, dueño de una pequeña granja en la sierra, se declara votante alterno del PP y el PSOE, pues no tiene claro quien le dará respuesta a su lenta agonía financiera.
Mi amiga Clara es funcionaria de la Administración. Se cree a salvo de la marejada de la crisis. Nunca tiene claro a quién votar, no le interesa la política. Ella cumple con su trabajo y no quiere saber nada más.
Pues bien, está a punto de empezar una nueva era para ellos, pero no lo saben. No pueden saberlo porque es un acuerdo prácticamente secreto. Les aviso y me creen trastornada. No tengo una bola de cristal, pero veo muy claro su futuro.
En los próximos meses, cuando entre en vigor el Tratado de Libre Comercio entre EEUU y la UE (TTIP), algo que ninguno de ellos conoce, su pequeño universo se transformará:
La libertad de comercialización de los productos americanos hará proliferar nuevos supermercados, llenos de envoltorios de colorines y precios de risa. Los trabajadores precarios, que son mayoría, sólo podrán comprar a esos precios, su sueldo no dará para más. Los pequeños comercios de proximidad irán cerrando poco a poco y nuestro frutero acabará de reponedor, por 500€ al mes, en un “walt-mart”, descubriendo que la fruta que venden allí es una porquería y que él, para asombro general, es de izquierdas pero no lo sabía. Se hará activista de un grupo off-line, ya que las nuevas normas sobre datos de usuarios de internet los pondrían al descubierto si usaran las RRSS.
